In the past two years, after a series of operations and market fluctuations, I ultimately lost 20 million yuan. This experience has deeply made me realize the cruelty and uncertainty of the investment market. Here are some trading insights I learned during this period:
1. Diversify your investments: Divide your capital into five parts and only invest one part at a time. Meanwhile, set a stop-loss level of 10 points, so even if one trade fails, you will only lose 2% of your total capital. If five consecutive trades fail, you will only lose 10% of your total capital. Conversely, if your trades are successful, you can set a take-profit level above 10 points. This method can help you avoid the risk of being trapped. However, in a bull market, shorting, and in a bear market, longing can be difficult to maintain when prices drop on long positions and rise on short positions. Therefore, the stop-loss should be set at 2%, resulting in a 20% loss over ten trades.
2. Go with the trend: To increase the winning rate, the key is to follow the market trend. In a downtrend, each rebound is an opportunity to lure more buyers; while in an uptrend, each drop is an opportunity to buy at a low. Whether it's bottom-fishing or buying low, it doesn't necessarily mean making a profit, as it depends on the market makers' mood.
3. Avoid cryptocurrencies that have surged in a short time: Do not touch those cryptocurrencies that have rapidly surged in a short period, whether they are mainstream coins or altcoins. It is rare for a cryptocurrency to experience several waves of significant uptrends. The likelihood of a continued rise after a short-term surge is low, and when high prices stagnate, they will naturally decline in the later stages. Although many people want to take a gamble, the risk is high.
4. Use MACD indicators to determine entry and exit points: When the DIF line and DEA form a golden cross below the 0 axis and break through the 0 axis, it is a strong buy signal. Conversely, when the MACD forms a dead cross above the 0 axis and moves downward, it signals to reduce your position. However, in actual operations, signals are not always that accurate.
5. Do not average down: I don't know who invented the term 'averaging down', but it has caused many retail investors to stumble. Many people keep averaging down on their losses, resulting in even greater losses. This is one of the most taboo practices in trading cryptocurrencies. Remember to never average down when you are in a loss, but to add to your position when you are in profit. The market is volatile, and people are greedy; you may lose all your funds by continuously averaging down.
6. Pay attention to trading volume: Trading volume is one of the soul indicators in the cryptocurrency space. When the coin price breaks out at a low level during consolidation, closely monitor the position building of large players. Sometimes, the price doesn’t rise while you are in, but as soon as you leave, it shoots up.
7. Only trade coins in an uptrend: Choose coins that are in an uptrend for trading, as this maximizes your chances and saves time. Determine the short-term, medium-term, and long-term upward trends based on the direction of the 3-day, 30-day, 84-day, and 120-day moving averages.
8. Persist in reviewing trades: After each trade, it is essential to review and check if the logic behind holding the coins has changed and whether the technical analysis of the weekly candlestick patterns aligns with your judgment regarding trend changes. Timely adjustments to trading strategies are very important.