At 3 AM today, the Americans released the minutes of the November FOMC meeting. I looked it over, and there are a few points worth noting:
First, if inflation rebounds, then interest rate cuts will be paused;
Second, if the unemployment rate rises or the economy slows down, interest rate cuts will accelerate;
Third, the majority of voting members believe that a 25 basis point rate cut in December is appropriate.
In summary, everything depends on inflation and employment data, a 55-45 split. After the minutes were released, CME also adjusted the probability of a December rate cut down to 66%.
Additionally, tonight the Americans will release the PCE inflation data for October. Currently, both the PCE and core PCE year-on-year forecast values are higher than the previous values, indicating that the market already expects inflation to rebound. Therefore, as long as any data can match the previous values tonight, it would be considered good news.
