Bitcoin is facing strong selling pressure and is likely to undergo further correction due to the impact of global economic factors. Below is a detailed analysis based on the article:
1. Current Market Situation
• Bitcoin price drops significantly: After approaching nearly $100,000, the price of Bitcoin has adjusted to $92,664 (at the time of writing).
• Market capitalization: Currently at $1.84 trillion, with daily trading volume increasing to $91.14 billion.
• Profit-taking pressure: Increased selling from long-term holders (LTHs) plays a major role in price correction.
2. Technical Factors and On-chain Analysis
Long-term holder (LTH) selling activity:
• 507,000 BTC have been sold since September 2024, with 366,000 BTC in the past month.
• Nevertheless, the current scale of selling is still lower compared to the price surge at the beginning of 2024.
Correlation with global M2 money supply:
• Bitcoin price often reflects the trend of M2 money supply with a 70-day lag.
• The recent price drop (down $5,000/day) coincides with global liquidity trends, according to analyst Joe Consorti.
Important Support and Resistance Levels:
• Important support:
• $88,000: Key short-term support level.
• $80,000 and $73,000: Lower levels to watch if selling pressure continues.
• Important resistance:
• $94,000: The price needs to surpass this level to avoid the risk of a deeper decline.
3. Market Factors and Investment Sentiment
Bearish Sentiment:
• The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of the year has decreased from 92% to 64%, according to the prediction platform Kalshi.
• The decline in confidence is also reflected in MicroStrategy's stock, which has dropped by up to 35% in the past week.
Optimistic View:
• According to Ki Young Ju (CryptoQuant), 20%-30% corrections are common in bull markets.
• Analyst PlanC believes that the accumulation phase around the $90,000 level is necessary to support sustainable development.
4. Bitcoin Price Scenario in the Near Future
Negative Scenario:
• If selling pressure continues, Bitcoin's price may retest the $88,000 level and even drop further to $80,000 or $73,000.
• This decline will reflect the correlation with global liquidity and pressure from profit-taking investors.
Positive Scenario:
• If Bitcoin holds the $88,000 support level, the price may recover and retest the $94,000 level, laying the groundwork to continue conquering $100,000.
5. Advice for Investors
• Risk management: Limit panic selling at local lows, especially when the long-term trend remains positive.
• Monitor key support levels: $88,000 and $80,000 are areas to pay attention to when assessing buying opportunities.
Bitcoin is still in a phase of high volatility, and maintaining a balanced view will help investors navigate short-term corrections to capitalize on long-term potential.
