The market may need to take a breather regarding dollar positions.
Before major events occur, the global market is not calm. After tonight, the U.S. financial markets will enter Thanksgiving holiday mode, which will be the last opportunity for many to decide whether to increase or reduce their positions this week.
1. Later today, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator will be released, and it is almost certain to rise moderately, but the market atmosphere remains tense. Economists expect the year-on-year increase in overall PCE for October to rise from 2.1% in September to 2.3%, while the year-on-year increase in core PCE is expected to rise from 2.7% to 2.8%—inflation remains stubborn. If tonight's data surprises, the market will establish a clear trend.$BTC
2. Before the aforementioned data is released, the number of unemployment claims in the U.S. from last week will be announced. As the Fed's focus shifts to another aspect of its dual mandate, perhaps the report on first-time unemployment claims should be given more attention. Do not underestimate any data tonight.
3. The dollar index fell sharply for the second consecutive trading day, with the Fed's November meeting minutes released early this morning Beijing time stating support for gradual rate cuts, taking a cautious stance on future potential rate cut decisions—this is the fundamental reason for today's decline in the dollar index.
As traders are reducing their bets on significant rate cuts, this minutes brought some unexpected news. There were originally no Fed officials scheduled to speak this week, but two Fed officials still appeared in the media spotlight 'hinting at rate cuts', consistent with the signals from the meeting minutes:
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that it is still appropriate to consider another rate cut at the December policy meeting;
San Francisco Fed President Daly expressed that she does not want to see a deterioration in the labor market.
However, the 'New Federal Reserve News Agency' released an interpretation of the Fed meeting minutes today, stating that if progress in reducing inflation stalls, they may slow down or pause interest rate cuts—there is still a risk that the market is overestimating the Fed's rate cuts.
4. Trump's first wave of tariff threats did not strengthen the dollar (instead, it fell), and the market will continue to price in the related effects of tariffs. Traders will remain tense regarding Trump's series of statements and possible 180-degree turns. If we approach discussions on comprehensive tariffs, it will ring alarm bells for risk assets. Currently, we are in a risk-on state, but the situation may change.
The market may continue to be tense, and this tension could lead people to 'sell first and talk later'.#市场波动，加仓还是观望？
