Bitcoin has dropped several times these days, probably three or four times. The one the night before last was particularly different; the previous three times were significant drops followed by a recovery from above 98,000 points.
But in the past two days, Bitcoin hasn't even touched 98,000 again. Friends are privately discussing whether this is the beginning of a continuous decline, dropping to 80,000, 70,000, or even 60,000? Some even say the bull market is over just like that.
Let's analyze this. First, regarding the overall situation, given the current trend, a major drop is possible, but it won't just happen out of the blue; there will be some fluctuations, which is what we call a spiral decline. I can't say for sure how low it can go, but it will definitely make people feel uneasy. You see, the funding rate for long positions is quite high now, indicating that many people are still trying to buy the dip. According to our medium to long-term view, the bull market is just getting started, and we still have to push toward the 100,000 mark.
So currently, there are two groups of people in the market: one group is busy buying the dip, and the other is waiting to short when it crashes. Think about it, if you were the main force, which group would you want to profit? If I were them, I wouldn't be happy if either group makes money, so it's reasonable to suppress prices. This way, the price spirals downwards, rebounds a bit, and then drops again, making those shorting start to feel uneasy, while those buying the dip might just explode into action.
So, at least for the next half month, we will still be lingering at this bottom. There won't be a sudden panic sell-off, nor will there be a strong rebound. When it truly comes to the point where everyone feels uneasy, remember, that will be a good time to buy the dip.
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