#市场波动，加仓还是观望？

Last night at 3 AM, the Americans released the minutes of the November FOMC meeting, and there are several points worth noting:

First, if inflation rebounds, then interest rate cuts will pause;

Second, if the unemployment rate rises or the economy slows down, interest rate cuts will accelerate;

Third, the majority of voting members believe a 25 basis point cut in December is appropriate.

In summary, everything depends on inflation and employment data, 50/50 chance. After the minutes were released, CME also adjusted the probability of a rate cut in December to 66%. Additionally, tonight the Americans will release the PCE inflation data for October. Currently, both the PCE and core PCE year-on-year forecast values are higher than the previous values, indicating that the market already anticipates a rebound in inflation. Therefore, as long as any data tonight matches the previous values, it would be considered good news.