Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead reflects on the decision to purchase 2% of the world's Bitcoin from 2013 to 2015, a forward-looking investment that has achieved an astonishing 1000 times return to date. This article is sourced from an article written by Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera, and organized and translated by Wu Shuo Blockchain. (Background: Who is selling Bitcoin at a price drop of $90,000? Glassnode: $76,000 to $88,000 is a key level for short-term retracement) (Supplementary background: Bitcoin's drop to $90,800 marks the largest decline since Trump's election! Analysts: The market leverage is too heavy, but it is still a healthy correction) The post-election rise has further increased the fund by 30%. The total return rate of the fund has now reached 131,165% (after fees and expenses). I want to share the initial logic—because it still feels very persuasive to me today. The day we chose to launch the Pantera Bitcoin Fund was actually the lowest point in the past eleven years. That initial investment memo is still clear to this day. From 2013 to 2015, we purchased 2% of the world’s Bitcoin. Attached: If Pantera bought 2% of the world's Bitcoin from 2013 to 2015, it is estimated to be about 280,000 Bitcoins. In contrast, as of November 24, 2024, MicroStrategy holds 386,700 Bitcoins. Even after eleven years, Bitcoin continues to be squeezed upwards like watermelon seeds. Frankly, I can't help but think that we still have many years of very attractive return periods ahead. Gold in 1000 BC My core point was written down a month later: "Yesterday, when I was discussing Bitcoin with an investor, he somewhat disdainfully responded, 'It's like buying gold.' No, no, it's like buying gold in 1000 BC. 99% of financial wealth has not yet ventured into Bitcoin. As an industry, we have made some progress. Now, only 'about' 95% of financial wealth has not yet been fully allocated. The catalyst for change from 5% in 2024 to a higher percentage has just occurred: regulatory clarity in the U.S. Large institutional managers like BlackRock and Fidelity are now providing extremely cheap and efficient Bitcoin investment channels for anyone with a brokerage account. This new convenience will ultimately allow millions of investors and individuals to access this important new asset class. We believe the entire industry will greatly benefit from the first pro-blockchain U.S. president taking office. In our view, the success of blockchain aligns with the greatest interests of the nation, and we believe everyone in Congress will eventually take a neutral or supportive stance on blockchain—this trend has already begun. The 15 years of regulatory headwinds for blockchain are turning into tailwinds. I still fervently believe in the view I wrote eleven years ago: "I believe the likelihood of global adoption of a global currency/payment system exceeds 50%, in which free cryptographic technology replaces the high 'trust' fees charged by banks like Visa – Mastercard / Western Union / PayPal, etc. Bitcoin replaces cash, electronic fiat currency, gold, bearer bonds, and large stone tablets, etc. It can do all these things. It is the first global currency since gold. It is the first borderless payment system in history." The price of Bitcoin at that time was $104. This still reflects my feelings. We are still in the early stages. 95% of financial wealth has yet to venture into blockchain. They are just beginning this huge transformation. When they participate, Bitcoin could reach levels similar to $740,000 / BTC. The market has indeed seen rapid increases. It reached $1,000 in less than a month—and has now increased by three orders of magnitude. 11 Years of Compound Annual Growth Rate of 88% I can imagine that some investors might think, "Bitcoin has doubled this year. Well, I probably missed out." And then give up. No, that mindset is wrong. The average performance of Bitcoin is nearly doubling every year. Since we launched the fund eleven years ago, its compound annual growth rate has been 88%. Growth by Orders of Magnitude Bitcoin has experienced growth by three orders of magnitude. Another order of magnitude of growth looks possible. If Bitcoin reaches $740,000 / BTC, that would mean a market capitalization of $15 trillion. Compared to the total financial asset volume of $500 trillion, this figure is not hard to imagine. Although past performance may not predict future results, if this trend continues, Bitcoin may reach $740,000 by April 2028. I believe it may take a few more years, but I do believe this possibility exists. This has always been my mindset: I won't bet my entire fortune, nor am I 100.00% sure that blockchain assets will grow, but when you multiply the possibility of it rising by the order of magnitude it could increase or more—this result is far better than the expected returns of other investable assets. In my nearly forty years of investment career, this trade's expected value is the most attractive I've ever seen. Not Easy It may seem obvious now, but it was very difficult at the time. After an 87% crash that began in December 2013, Bitcoin gradually lost attention. The market had still not recovered after more than three years. By 2016, nearly everyone had lost confidence in Bitcoin. Investors showed no interest. That year, I flew around the world, holding 170 investor meetings. The final result of all these efforts—we raised only $1 million. The management fee for this fund was $17,241. An average of $100 per meeting. We could have bought a hotel!!! I am inherently a loyal team player. I have always hoped the Bitcoin team would win. Over the years, we have done our utmost to help this community. So, when Expedia announced it would accept Bitcoin in 2014, we paid for all travel expenses with Bitcoin. In 2015, our team traveled for 59 nights—averaging 1.5 BTC per night, totaling 88 Bitcoins. That amounts to $8,683,136 today!? We could have bought two hotels! The Amazing Growth of the Blockchain Industry In 2013, when we were preparing to launch the Pantera Bitcoin Fund, I opened accounts at several exchanges and imported funds in preparation. When I first walked into Wells Fargo from our office on Market Street in San Francisco to wire money to Ljubljana, Slovenia, I didn't even know how to spell Ljubljana. Everything seemed very suspicious. So much so that the bank manager came over to question me for a long time, asking what I was doing. (Now I know Slovenia is a lovely country located to the right of Venice and below Austria.) But at that time, I doubted whether I was crazy. Another transfer was sent to a small startup that sounded equally suspicious. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was about $130. In the following days, I witnessed the price of Bitcoin drop from $130 to ...

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