The 'rolling' strategy is theoretically feasible; it requires investors to invest with appropriate positions when major market opportunities arise instead of frequently conducting small trades. The successful implementation of this strategy often relies on precise judgment of market trends and timing. Although one can accumulate wealth from zero to tens of millions by seizing a few such opportunities in a lifetime, this requires investors to possess high market insight and decision-making abilities. The following points are lessons that will benefit you for life.
Rolling timing
The art of rolling is not something that can be mastered on a whim. It requires timing, location, and collaboration to increase the odds of success. Here are four golden opportunities for rolling:
(1) Breakout after long-term consolidation: When the market has been in a consolidation phase for a long time and the volatility drops to a new low, once the market chooses a breakout direction, consider using rolling.
(2) Buying the dip in a bull market: In the waves of a bull market, the market experiences a strong rise followed by a sudden drop. At this point, consider using a rolling strategy to capture the opportunity to buy the dip.
(3) Breakthrough at the weekly level: When the market breaks through key resistance or support levels on the weekly chart, it's like breaking through a solid defensive line. At this point, rolling can seize this breakout opportunity.
(4) Market sentiment and news events: When market sentiment fluctuates like the weather, or there are significant news events and policy changes that may shake the market, rolling can become a powerful tool in your hands.
Only under these specific circumstances will the odds of rolling significantly increase. At other times, it's better to remain cautious or simply give up on unclear opportunities. But if the market conditions seem suitable for rolling, don't forget to strictly control risks and set stop-loss points to guard against unforeseen circumstances. After all, wise investors are always those who know how to find balance between risk and opportunity.
Technical analysis
After confirming that the market is suitable for rolling, the next step is technical analysis. First, look at the trend, using tools like moving averages, MACD, and RSI to determine whether the market is trending up or down. If possible, it's best to use several indicators together; this is more reliable.
Identify key support and resistance points in the market, assess whether the breakout is reliable, and use divergence signals to seize reversal opportunities. For instance, if the price reaches a new high but MACD does not follow suit, this may indicate a top divergence, suggesting the price may fall; at this time, consider reducing position or shorting. Conversely, if the price reaches a new low but MACD does not reach a new low, this may indicate a bottom divergence, suggesting the price may rise; in this case, consider adding to your position or going long.
Position management
Rational position management is key and consists of three steps: determining the initial position, establishing additional investment rules, and formulating a reduction strategy. Using an example makes it easier to understand.
Initial position: If you have 1 million yuan, your initial investment should not exceed 10%, that is, 100,000 yuan.
Additional investment rule: When you decide to increase investment, make sure to wait until the price breaks through key resistance levels, and do not increase the investment amount by more than 50% of the original investment amount, meaning a maximum of an additional 50,000 yuan.
Reduction strategy: When the price reaches your expected profit target, you can start gradually selling off. Remember to let go when it's time to let go; don't hesitate. Ideally, each selling amount should not exceed 30% of your current holdings, allowing you to gradually lock in your profits.
In fact, as ordinary investors, we can be bolder when we encounter great opportunities, and be more conservative when opportunities are scarce. If luck is on our side, we might make a few million; if luck is not on our side, we can only accept reality. However, I must remind everyone that once you make money, you should take out your invested principal first and then continue investing with the profits. You can not make money, but you cannot lose money.
Adjusting positions
After managing the position, we arrive at the most crucial step—how to achieve rolling by adjusting positions.
1. Timing: Enter the market only when conditions for rolling are met.
2. Opening positions: Follow the signals from technical analysis to find the right entry point.
3. Adding positions: If the market moves in your direction, gradually add to your position.
4. Reducing position: If you've made the expected profit or if the market seems off, gradually sell.
5. Closing: Once you reach your target price or the market shows obvious signs of changing direction, sell everything.
Here’s how I operate; let me share my rolling insights:
(1) Add more after making money: If your investment has increased, consider adding more, but only if the cost has decreased and the risk is lower. It's not about adding every time you make money, but about doing so at the right moment, such as at breakout points in a trend; if it breaks out, quickly reduce, or add during a pullback.
(2) Core position + trading: Divide your assets into two parts, keeping one part as a core position while trading the other part during market price fluctuations to reduce costs and increase returns. There are several ways to divide it:
1. Half-position rolling: Hold half of the funds long-term, and trade the other half during price fluctuations.
2. 30% core position: Hold 30% of funds long-term, and trade the remaining 70% during price fluctuations.
3. 70% core position: Hold 70% of funds long-term, and trade the remaining 30% during price fluctuations.
The purpose of doing this is to maintain a certain level of position while using short-term market fluctuations to adjust costs and optimize positions.
Risk management
Risk management simply means two things: total position control and capital allocation. Ensure that your total investment does not exceed the risks you can bear, and allocate capital wisely; don't put all your eggs in one basket. At the same time, always pay attention to market dynamics and changes in technical indicators, adjusting strategies flexibly based on market conditions, and setting stop-losses or adjusting investment amounts as necessary.
Many people may feel both excited and fearful when they hear about rolling; eager to try but worried about risks. In fact, the rolling strategy itself is not very risky; the key lies in the use of leverage. If used rationally, risks can be fully controlled.
For example, if I have 10,000 yuan in capital and open a position when a coin's price is 1,000 yuan, I use 10x leverage but only use 10% of the total capital (1,000 yuan) as margin, so effectively I only use 1x leverage. If I set a 2% stop-loss line, once the market turns unfavorable, my loss will only be 2% of that 1,000 yuan, which is 200 yuan. Even in the worst-case scenario where liquidation conditions are triggered, you would only lose that 1,000 yuan, not all your funds. Those who face liquidation often do so because they used excessive leverage or were overexposed; even a slight market fluctuation could trigger liquidation. But with this method, even if the market turns against you, your losses are limited. Therefore, whether you use 20x leverage or 30x, or even 3x or 0.5x, the key lies in whether you can use leverage and manage positions reasonably.
This is the basic operational process of rolling. Interested friends can take a closer look and study it carefully. Of course, everyone may have different views; I am just sharing my experience and not trying to persuade anyone.
How can small funds grow larger? The compounding effect.
If you have a coin that doubles in value every day, in a month, its value will be astonishing. Doubling on the first day, doubling again on the second day, and so on, the final number will be astonishingly large. This is the magic of compounding. Even if you start with little capital, as long as you keep doubling, you can eventually accumulate an impressive amount.
For those who don't have much capital but want to enter the market, aim for big goals. Many people think that with small funds, they should trade frequently and aim for quick gains, but in reality, medium to long-term investments might be more suitable. Instead of making small profits every day, it's better to focus on achieving several times growth with each trade; what we want is exponential growth.
In position management, the first step is to diversify risks; don't put all your funds into one trade. You can divide your funds into three to four parts, investing only one part each time. For example, if you have 40,000, divide it into four parts and use only 10,000 for each trade.
Use leverage moderately. The leverage for mainstream currencies should not exceed ten times, and for small coins, it should not exceed four times.
Adjust dynamically. If you incur losses, supplement with an equivalent amount of funds from outside; if you make a profit, extract some appropriately. Regardless, don't let yourself fall into losses.
When your capital grows to a certain extent, consider gradually increasing the amount for each trade, but don't increase too much at once; it should be gradual.
Through rational position management and prudent trading strategies, small funds can gradually achieve significant appreciation. The key is to patiently wait for the right timing and focus on the big goals of each trade rather than daily small profits.
I also know that anyone can face liquidation. But at that time, I still had spot profits to cover the losses; I don't believe that you have not made any profit on your spot assets. My futures only accounted for 2% of my total funds, and no matter how much I lost, I wouldn't lose everything; the loss amount has always been within my control.
I hope we can all make our funds grow like a snowball.
Giving roses to others, the remaining fragrance in your hands. Thank you for your likes, follows, and shares! Wishing everyone financial freedom by 2025!
In the current fluctuating market changes, blindly going solo will never bring opportunities. Focus on the strategies, timing, and tactics of the market.
