In the world, everyone is here for profit; the world is bustling with interests! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui Talks About Coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to provide valuable information about the coin market to the majority of coin friends. Welcome all coin friends to follow and like, rejecting any market smoke bombs.
Let me clarify, yesterday's article was already sent. Due to some somewhat explicit content, many platforms could not pass it, causing most users to think that Lao Cui did not send it. Interested parties can search in other places. This frequent wash trading market trend is, from Lao Cui's perspective, a completely normal occurrence. Many friends do not understand why such a completely one-sided decline occurs amid many positive news. Friends who are slightly more attentive can find that Bitcoin's decline has always been accompanied by some people bottom-fishing. Especially yesterday, it was mentioned that Trump's wallet increased around 1.7 million in assets again during a sharp decline. Why do you need to disrupt your own rhythm? The bull market has not run away; it is still on the rise. Overcome your inner thoughts; don't overthink. A reminder: spot users should not focus on entering at the lowest price. Once this habit is formed, during significant declines, not being able to bottom-fish means you shouldn't think about chasing highs when the bull market comes. The current market entry price should refer to the price after Trump's inauguration in January; as long as the January price is higher than now, entering the market in batches is a way to lower your average price!
Before hitting the 100,000 mark, and even after the interest rate cuts, there may still be a certain scale of frequent wash trading. Everyone must accept the occurrence of this market trend. For spot users, there is actually no harm, but for contract users, it may affect certain short-term returns. Therefore, Lao Cui's approach for most contract users is to operate under stable market conditions. Those who want to short should focus on Ethereum, while those who want to go long should wait for a wave of downward movement before bottom-fishing Bitcoin. Under conditions of significant rises or falls, Lao Cui generally does not recommend everyone to operate unless it is in the form of pre-positioning. If there is no prior ambush, it is better to let go of this wave of profits. This market trend does not count as profit for most people; it is more about risk. Most users are basically losing in the face of rapid rises or falls. Currently, Lao Cui has noticed the opening habits of losing users, and some even shorted below 91,000. Chasing rises or falls can only lead to self-defeating. One must quit the idea of chasing the market, especially when shorting; the pullback is just to allow the market maker to buy in at a lower position. Everyone should carefully observe that currently, only Grayscale still holds around 800 Ethereum, while at around 1200 Ethereum, Lao Cui nearly touched the 3000 position in the last round of movement and has already advised everyone to take profits and exit. Without substantial capital support, do not amplify your inner desires!
From the perspective of capital volume, a large amount of funds has already entered the market at the Bitcoin price of 91,000 in the morning, but the outflow is still far from that. Nearly 100 million has flowed out within the past 24 hours, which is at the retail investor level. It can be said that the purpose of this downward movement has not yet been achieved, and there may be a wave of correction later, but it will not be too deep. Therefore, spot users should prepare to seize opportunities. If there are still doubts about interest rate cuts, it would be advisable to wait until after the cuts to enter the market. The period from December to January after the rate cut will see the settlement of foreign trade. Currently, due to foreign trade reasons, the American side is vigorously pulling the exchange rate of the dollar. This exchange rate will certainly have some impact on the cryptocurrency market, considering that USDT is still pegged to the dollar. In terms of conversion, the impact of the exchange rate will at least cause a growth effect of 2000-3000 points, and the depth of the correction will basically be controlled at this position. The impact of funds in December will definitely be huge, as American and Western holidays are concentrated from December to January. Retail investors' funds will see some withdrawal including private equity funds and other organizations that need financial reports, and they will definitely withdraw some assets for dividends. After the interest rate cut in December, as long as a high point is reached, everyone can choose to withdraw some of their chips to hand, waiting for Trump to take office before bottom-fishing again.
The depth of this round of correction can be seen as bursting the economic bubble. In the next round of hitting the 100,000 mark, the phenomenon of competition will not be too obvious, but at the positions above 100,000, you need to pay close attention to the issues of capital. The cryptocurrency market above 100,000 is extremely frightening; the overall market value may reach around 4-5 trillion. Bitcoin's market value can directly rise to around 3 trillion, which is very alarming. In the last bull market, it only brought the cryptocurrency market to the beginning of 3 trillion, but this data is certainly unsustainable. The strength of a market must be accompanied by the decline of other markets. This amount of capital will inevitably absorb liquidity from the U.S. stock market and the domestic market. Once these two markets focus on the cryptocurrency market, the means of counteraction may be unimaginable. The decline of the last bull market was largely due to domestic restrictions on cards, which directly defined the cryptocurrency market and led to a waterfall drop of 15,000 points in one day. Will this situation happen again? We cannot predict; it depends on the support from the U.S. The opening of Hong Kong is merely aimed at the layout of capitalism. Lao Cui believes that the cryptocurrency market will not easily open up to the mainland, especially at this critical juncture, to prevent capital outflow, which fundamentally defines the height of the cryptocurrency market. Even if you are in a profitable position in the future, you may still have to consider tax issues. If tax issues are not resolved, the cryptocurrency market cannot survive in the public eye.
The previous paragraph was somewhat explicit, and discussing it easily leads to mentioning content that cannot be sent. I hope this article can be seen by everyone. As an emerging financial market, the current situation is too prominent, which is indeed not a good thing for the cryptocurrency market. After this month, if we can welcome the interest rate cut in December, the bull market will go back to the 100,000 mark. Spot users should never sell at a loss or exit for the sake of preserving capital later on. The upper space that can be imagined is still enormous. Basically, all the large funds are entering around 80-90,000. The current wash trading is only filtering out retail investors. It is best not to easily intervene when shorting; this low position is suitable for spot users to bottom-fish. Even contract users can control their positions well and use an ant position to test the waters. The countermeasure is to enter the market in batches to lower the average price, as long as one can wait for Trump's inauguration.
The last issue is the military aspect. Many friends feel confused after listening to Lao Cui talk about military matters. How can the Russia-Ukraine war lead to growth in the cryptocurrency market one moment and a decline the next? The relationship on the military level is very subtle. The expansion of war only means an expansion of conventional warfare, which is beneficial for the capital transfer in the cryptocurrency market. However, once it escalates to the level of nuclear weapons, once it begins, there will be no safe-haven assets, only essential goods for survival, such as basic human necessities, that will hold value. There is no need to mention the cryptocurrency market; what can gold do? What can U.S. dollars and stocks do? If they cannot be converted into the survival items you need, they are worthless. Therefore, the impact of military aspects will directly affect the survival of the cryptocurrency market. What Lao Cui means is that under normalization, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine situation will lead to growth in the cryptocurrency market. A side note: BlackRock has nearly fully bottomed out Ukraine's state-owned assets. Everyone should be clear about the reason behind this layout. That's all for now; users who need to enter the market can ask Lao Cui, as the article is discussed quite thoroughly.
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Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess. A master can see five, seven, or even dozens of steps ahead, while a novice can only see two or three steps. The master considers the overall situation and trends and does not focus on one piece or one area but aims to win the game. The novice, however, fights for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, only focusing on short-term gains, resulting in frequent troubles.
This material is for learning and reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this material is at your own risk!
