Nearly half of Bitcoin options traders are betting on a six-figure price by the end of 2024, with some even expecting a surge to $150,000 despite the recent pullback to $90,000, on-chain data shows.
“Interestingly, the chance of BTC surpassing $100,000 has increased to 45% from last week's 34%, with a new probability of 4% to exceed $150,000,” said DeFi options protocol founder Nick Forster in a market report on November 26.
According to the data, ‘very few’ are selling Bitcoin
Forster further explained that significant demand for Bitcoin (BTC) options, particularly calls betting on price increases, “signals a strong market appetite for both upside potential and downside protection.”
BTC Options Trading Distribution Chart. Source: Derive
According to data from Derive, 41.3% of trading contracts are calls, while 38.3% are puts betting that Bitcoin will decrease with “very few sellers.” These options give buyers the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call) or sell (put) Bitcoin before or on expiration at a specific price (strike price).
At the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin was $92,680, down about 7.02% from the recent peak near $100,000, which reached $99,541, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin was trading at $92,680 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap
Data also indicates that before the end of 2024, Bitcoin has a 68% chance of returning to $81,493 or rising to $115,579. Meanwhile, there is only a 5% chance of dropping below $70,000 to $68,429 or reaching a high of $137,645.
However, some analysts do not rule out the possibility of stronger corrections.
More brutal corrections could occur, according to analysts
CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju stated in a post on November 26 on X that even in a parabolic rally, Bitcoin could witness -30% corrections.
Ju emphasized that “such corrections have happened consecutively” in the 2021 cycle when Bitcoin then rose from $17,000 to $64,000.
“This is not a call for a correction—just manage your risk and avoid panic selling at local bottoms. We are in a bull market,” Ju added.
Meanwhile, renowned cryptocurrency analyst PlanC expressed being “excited” to see Bitcoin “consolidating a bit around the $90,000 level.”
“It seems increasingly likely that we could actually take some time to consolidate in the $90,000 range,” PlanC said in a post on November 26 on X.
“If that is the case, this would be the best scenario for the longevity of this bull market,” he added.
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