The possibility of Bitcoin's price moving towards six figures is becoming increasingly real! According to the latest on-chain data analysis, as of the end of 2024, the probability of Bitcoin breaking 100,000 dollars has soared to 45%, while the more outrageous target of 150,000 dollars also has a 4% chance of being achieved. Despite the recent price pullback from the peak to 92,680 dollars, market sentiment is unusually high.
The options market reveals: bullish power overwhelms everything
Nick Forster, founder of the on-chain options DeFi protocol, pointed out in the market report: 'In the past week, the probability of Bitcoin breaking 100,000 dollars has risen from 34% to 45%, reflecting traders' optimistic sentiment towards upward potential.' Data shows that the structure of the options market is currently tilted towards bulls, with 41.3% of option contracts being bullish, while put contracts account for 38.3%. It is worth noting that there are 'very few sellers' in the market, indicating strong confidence from investors in the current pullback area.
At the same time, CoinMarketCap's data further validates this trend. The model predicts that by the end of 2024, Bitcoin has up to a 68% chance of returning to 81,493 dollars or even soaring to 115,579 dollars.
Pullbacks in a bull market: risk or opportunity?
Although options data suggests a strong future, historical experience reminds us that bull markets do not rise straight up. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju mentioned: 'In a parabolic bull market, Bitcoin has experienced pullbacks of up to 30% multiple times.' Taking the 2021 cycle as an example, Bitcoin underwent similar adjustments during its surge from 17,000 dollars to 64,000 dollars.
However, this is not a pessimistic signal. Ju believes that these pullbacks are more of a healthy adjustment in a bull market, and one only needs to avoid panic selling at low levels and maintain a steady position. He emphasizes: 'We are in a bull market, and risk management is key.'
Another well-known analyst, PlanC, holds a more optimistic view, stating that Bitcoin may spend more time consolidating around the '90s' (near 90,000 dollars), which would be the best scenario for the continuation of the bull market.
The driving force behind it: a perfect duet of macro and capital flows
Behind the rise in Bitcoin's price is not only the optimistic sentiment in the options market but also larger macro factors. The Federal Reserve's shift to a loose monetary policy and the increasing acceptance of global crypto assets have injected new growth momentum into the market. At the same time, the continuous entry of institutional investors has provided strong support for Bitcoin's price.
Moreover, Bitcoin's price approaching the historic psychological barrier of 100,000 dollars has also stimulated a large influx of new capital into the options market. Traders express confidence in the price breakout through bullish options, and the premiums of these contracts in turn drive up sentiment in the spot market.
The 'watershed' moment of 2024?
If Bitcoin successfully breaks through 100,000 dollars, it will not only be a price milestone but could also signify a fundamental shift in market structure. A six-figure Bitcoin price may drive more traditional institutions and individual investors into the market, further expanding the ecological influence of cryptocurrencies. However, if the price fails to break through as expected, it may trigger a short-term pullback or even fluctuations in market confidence.
Regardless, this epic battle for Bitcoin is unfolding. For investors, each subsequent pullback may present a golden opportunity to position for the future.
Focus on trends, grasp the rhythm, will the 'dream' of 100,000 dollars by the end of the year come true? Let's wait and see!
Recent market turbulence has brought new investment opportunities. Through in-depth analysis and data research by Old Chen, some potential high-return opportunities have been identified. Whether it’s Bitcoin's momentum indicators or technical signals from other mainstream currencies, Old Chen will provide you with detailed analysis to help you navigate the market.
#市场波动，加仓还是观望？ #美国GDP数据即将公布 #比特币盘整分析 #比特币关键区间 #PCE与美联储纪要公布在即 $BTC $ETH $SOL
