Last week, Bitcoin [BTC] surged significantly, reaching a historic high of $99,645, but it has now entered a correction phase.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin has dropped by 5.6% from its peak, and as of now, its trading price is $93,602, having decreased by 4.3% in the past 24 hours. As Bitcoin gradually approaches the psychologically significant $100,000 price level, the market has shown signs of correction. Nevertheless, market analysts are still exploring future trend indicators by analyzing key metrics.
Current trend of retail traders:
CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu points out a key situation: retail traders have not played a significant role in Bitcoin price movements. From the Korean premium index, which reflects retail participation, it is still below -0.5, indicating that retail activity is not the main driving force behind the recent rise in Bitcoin prices.
Historically, the Korean premium index often surges significantly before Bitcoin reaches peak prices, so Woominkyu emphasizes closely monitoring this indicator to identify potential price tops. The low participation of retail investors indicates that this Bitcoin rally is primarily driven by institutional participation or other factors. Once retail investors return to the market, there is still considerable room for further price increases.
Insights from exchange outflows and open interest:
In addition to focusing on retail activity, studying Bitcoin's exchange outflows and open interest can provide a deeper understanding of market dynamics. CryptoQuant's data shows a clear trend in Bitcoin exchange outflows. On November 25, over 75,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges, and although it has now dropped to about 31,000 BTC, this figure is still noteworthy, especially since the day has only just begun.
Total Bitcoin Exchange Outflows - All Exchanges
The trend of Bitcoin flowing out of exchanges suggests that investors may prefer self-custody, reflecting a long-term holding intention rather than short-term selling pressure.
Looking at Bitcoin's open interest indicator, the performance is mixed. According to Coinglass, the value of Bitcoin's open interest has decreased by 4.55%, dropping to $60.37 billion, which indicates that leveraged positions may be cooling off; however, the number of open contracts has surged by 62.58%, reaching $132.86 billion. This discrepancy suggests that while the total contract value has decreased, the number of active market positions is increasing.
An increase in trading volume may indicate enhanced market activity, with traders opening positions in anticipation of further price fluctuations; however, the overall decrease in the value of these positions may reflect a cautious attitude from larger investors.
