The Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision: will it cut or not? What impact does it have on our crypto market?

1. Regarding whether to cut interest rates next month, Chairman Powell did not clearly say yes or no, which feels a bit like beating around the bush; it’s almost like saying nothing. We can only rely on ourselves to gather more data and understand the situation.

2. From the data perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next month is over 50%, but lower than the 80% probability mentioned before the November meeting. This suggests a reluctance to cut rates too quickly.

3. Currently, Chairman Powell and several key figures are concerned about the inflation that may arise from cutting rates, fearing that stimulating the market economy too much could lead to excessive inflation. The data shows that American productivity has increased, and there are worries about severe market inflation following a rate cut. I think this consideration is quite meaningful, but the real issue for America right now is not this little bit; if a cut is necessary, it should still proceed.

4. So, how will the decision to cut or not cut rates next month affect the crypto market? I’d like to share my insights here. A rate cut is certainly better; more funds will flow into the market, and the market fluctuations will be more liquid. Not cutting rates won’t have a significant impact on the overall market; at most, at the moment of announcement, the G-fund might drop a bit due to the news, but the market will continue to see bullish trends rather than a direct bearish turn, because next year, with Trump back in office, there will be more favorable news and policies coming out.

5. If the market drops, we should look to buy the dip. The leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have surged close to $100,000, driven by large institutions and even some political figures from countries that can't be disclosed. They too want to profit, and the market won’t crash just because it hasn’t risen several times, so for major coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, XRP, etc., if they drop, we should buy.

6. For us retail investors, market opportunities lie in undervaluation, allowing us to buy cheap chips and get on board more easily, so we can benefit. While news is undoubtedly important, we shouldn’t treat the market like a casino. Opportunities in the crypto space are becoming scarcer, and getting rich quickly is increasingly difficult. We must think long-term, consider how to carve out our own niche in the space, earn the wealth we can, and make plans for long-term survival.