Family: The big one is coming again, the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts in December, will it be a cut or not? What are the pros and cons for us in the crypto circle?

"The alarm has sounded" I stayed up all night to watch some content

Summary of six points: #PCE与美联储纪要公布在即

1. Regarding whether or not to cut interest rates next month, old Powell did not clearly say whether to cut or not, which is a bit like taking off your pants to fart, essentially saying nothing; we can only rely on ourselves to understand and collect some data.

2. From the data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next month is over 50%, but lower than the 80% probability mentioned before the November meeting. This suggests a bit of reluctance to cut rates too quickly.

3. Currently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and several key figures are concerned about the inflation that may arise after a rate cut, fearing that excessive market economic stimulus could occur. Now the data shows that American productivity has improved, and they are worried that market inflation will be too severe after a rate cut. I find this concern somewhat meaningful, but the real issue for Americans isn't just that; if a rate cut is needed, they still have to cut.

4. So how will a rate cut or no rate cut next month affect the crypto market? I would like to share my insights with everyone here.

A rate cut is certainly better; the market will see more funds come in, and market fluctuations will have more liquidity.

Not cutting rates will not have too great an impact on the overall market; at most, at the moment of announcement, G-institutions may leverage the news to drop a bit, but the market will continue to look bullish, and it won’t directly turn bearish 🐻 because next year Trump taking office will be a game-changer, and more favorable news and policies will likely come out.

5. If the market falls, we should buy the dip. Now Bitcoin has surged up to nearly $100,000, which involves institutional players, including some untouchable political figures, who also want to make money. They won’t let the market rise just a few times and then shoot themselves in the foot, so Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, XRP, and other mainstream value coins should be bought on dips.

6. For us retail investors, the opportunity in the market lies in being able to buy undervalued chips at a lower price, making it easier to get in, so we can sip some soup. While the news is certainly important, we shouldn’t treat the market like a casino; opportunities in the crypto circle are becoming increasingly scarce, and becoming rich overnight is more difficult. We must look further ahead, think about how to carve out our own place in this circle, earn the wealth we can, and make long-term survival plans. That's all.