The homework these past few days has been particularly difficult, mainly because the fluctuations of FOMO emotions have brought too much expectation and a huge gap for everyone. One moment it was a final push to $100,000, and the next it dropped to nearly below $90,000. This gap made those who chased high prices very uncomfortable. If you say not to chase, BTC might just reach $120,000, and chasing could yield another 20% profit. What else can you chase if not BTC? Chasing #ETH feels a bit uneasy, and chasing ALT (altcoins) feels just as uneasy as two ETH.
So there are still quite a few friends who chased #BTC in the US stock market, namely $MSTR and $SMLR. The initial thought was to catch some of the missed BTC gains through the extremely high premium of MSTR, but unexpectedly, MSTR fell even harder than BTC, especially when BTC rebounded. MSTR not only didn’t rise but actually fell, and now the voices of high premiums for MSTR are increasing, and it can no longer be described as FUD.
It is during such times that investors' patience is tested the most. From the URPD data in the past two days, I can clearly see a large number of losing investors exiting because they are worried about the upcoming trend. Many investors even believe that the gap of $80,000 in CME needs to be filled, which also conveys some troubling information for losing investors.
Investment itself is difficult, and smooth sailing is very rare. How many friends remember the eight-month fluctuation around $26,000 in 2023, and the eight-month fluctuation around $64,000 in 2024? Especially compared to the bull market in 2021, where there were many pullbacks during the rise, some even reaching nearly 30%. But now looking back, how many friends lost and exited, never to have the chance to get back in?
Of course, I’m not saying that we are in the same situation as in 2021, but I hope everyone can analyze the current situation. Have all favorable factors already landed? Are there still reasons that could help or hinder the rise of BTC prices? For example, Microsoft's vote on December 11 is a double-edged sword. The official inauguration of Trump on January 21 should bring about better expectations, but what will happen between December 11 and January 21 is anyone's guess.
The worst-case scenario could be a sudden economic recession, the emergence of a black swan, where everyone has nothing to play with, or a significant rise in unemployment leading the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts, or a sharp rebound in inflation causing the Federal Reserve to stop cutting rates or even consider raising them again. These are all possible situations, so we need to learn about the current trends, those with a higher probability of occurring. If the probability of favorable outcomes is greater, hold firmly; if the probability of unfavorable outcomes is greater, exit as soon as possible.
Investment is your own behavior, and you can only be responsible for yourself.
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