$After an unsuccessful attempt to settle above the psychological mark of $100,000, Bitcoin (BTC) is once again facing obstacles. Overnight, prices retreated to $94,500, and key indicators suggest a possibility of a deeper pullback to levels below $90,000. Let's consider the main reasons for the current weakness in the BTC market.
1. Negative risk reversal in the options market 📊
The 25-delta risk reversal indicator, which reflects market participants' preferences between bullish and bearish options, has turned negative for the first time in a month. This signals a growing demand for protective put options (bets on price declines) compared to calls (bets on price increases).
On the Deribit platform, traders are actively buying put options, indicating preparation for a possible continuation of the decline. This is also confirmed by the actions of institutional participants on over-the-counter platforms who are selling call spreads and increasing protective positions.
2. Decrease in Coinbase premium: weakening demand in the USA 🇺🇸
The Coinbase premium indicator, showing the price difference of BTC between the American exchange Coinbase and offshore Binance, has turned negative again. This is a clear sign that the American market, which was the main driver of the recent rally, is losing interest in Bitcoin.
In recent weeks, increased demand in the USA has helped BTC rise from $70,000 to $99,500. However, the bearish bias in buy and sell orders on Coinbase now indicates the market's vulnerability to negative news.
3. Bearish divergence in RSI 📉
Technical indicators also do not inspire optimism. Daily charts show a bearish divergence in the RSI — this is when prices set a new high, but the oscillator does not confirm the rise.
Last week, despite reaching a local maximum above $99,000, the RSI failed to update its values, indicating a decrease in momentum and potential weakness in the bullish trend.
Support on the horizon? 🛡️
Technical analysis indicates potential support levels in the $87,000–$88,000 range. If the decline continues, this is where the market may attempt to stabilize. Meanwhile, the long-term prospects for Bitcoin remain optimistic, considering the overall sentiment of market participants and the structural bullish trend.
Conclusion 🔮
Weakness in American demand, bearish sentiment in the options market, and RSI signals create conditions for further pullbacks in Bitcoin. However, it is important to remember that after periods of corrections, the crypto market often returns to growth, and current events may become another stage in the long-term upward trend. Investors should be prepared for both a deeper correction and a possible recovery.
