Until the risk materializes, no amount of persuasion is useful. In the cryptocurrency market, during a surge, most people appear to be experts, the kings who laugh in the face of adversity. But the cryptocurrency market is just like that; there are cycles of ups and downs. Generally, those who are overly confident will eventually get hit hard. Being honest often leads to losses and beatings, and only after accepting it can one change.

Currently, from the perspective of cycle levels, the MACD is bullish and trending upwards; the trend is not broken, it's just that the buying power is weakening. Unless a death cross appears, it won’t likely drop to 70,000. Unless this bull market has already peaked. The 5-week moving average supports around 87,000. The 10-week is around 80,000. If it truly falls below 80,000, 99,540 should be the peak of this bull market.

However, from the current viewpoint, a weekly level correction is necessary.

At the moment, in terms of trading cycles, it’s not yet time to buy on the daily level. As for short-term trades, if you have good skills, feel free to proceed.

But in terms of cycles, for spot players, I still suggest being patient and waiting. There’s no rush because there are no extreme cries of despair. There are also no large-scale liquidations of long contracts; the vehicle is too heavy to lift.

Recently, I suggest if you are trading contracts, you can go short on a rebound around 95,000. I haven’t been keen on suggesting going short or long lately. Being straightforward can easily attract criticism.

Trump is about to take office, and the world situation is changing dramatically. Many persistent factors continue to exist. The Ukraine-Russia war is complicated; for the U.S., this is a situation that can only earn profits and incur no losses. They can sell weapons to the EU while holding back Russia and the East. The war will end one day, but it must seriously weaken a certain country.

Many believe that when Trump comes to power, the war will end; I’m not so sure.

The whole world is a game; everyone wants to be a strategist. Power rises in the East and falls in the West, and the cryptocurrency market is no different. Everyone wants to be the big boss, the one in control. When BTC prices rise and fall, the East also wants a share. Many times, it’s already a game of quiet maneuvering between institutions and countries. As small players, it’s generally hard for us to grasp the turning points and we are often at the mercy of others.

Trading cryptocurrencies is indeed quite challenging. But what never changes is human nature; as long as you can manage your desires well, you can generally sustain profits in this market, but we are just ordinary people.