The rapid growth of Bitcoin necessitates a correction, notes analyst Rekt Capital in his latest video review, analyzing the Pi Cycle indicator and historical price movement patterns.
1-day BTC/USD chart and Pi Cycle indicator. Source: Rekt Capital
The current price of Bitcoin is above the orange moving average, which has historically served as a support level during bull markets. This line is currently at $66,000, but its value will increase due to the sharp rise in price. The support of this level was most evident in 2017 when the price repeatedly bounced off it before continuing to rise.
Key levels and timelines
The green moving average, located at $122,000, may become a short-term resistance. However, before that, Bitcoin needs to overcome the psychological mark of $100,000. History shows that after a temporary bounce from the green line, the price usually continues to move towards new historical highs.
After the halving, the bull market usually lasts about 518-550 days. If this pattern holds, the peak of the current cycle may occur in September-October. The exact timing will depend on many factors, including the depth of possible corrections and periods of consolidation.
Signs of overheating
The Pi Cycle indicator shows signs of overheating—the orange moving average has sharply surged upward. If the current dynamics continue, a bearish crossover may occur as early as the end of May 2025, which is significantly earlier than traditional timelines.
However, the analyst emphasizes that a correction in the coming weeks will allow the indicator to 'cool down' and delay the crossover. This is more in line with historical patterns, where after surpassing the historical maximum, the rally lasted 250-330 days.
1-week BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Rekt Capital
Historical data shows different durations of growth after updating the historical maximum: 270 days in the 2017 cycle and 330 days in the 2020-2021 cycle. If these patterns repeat, the peak may fall between July and September. The key factor for determining more precise timing will be the nature of the correction and its impact on technical indicators.
