Written by: jessewldn
Compiled by: Baihua Blockchain
In the past two years, the crypto industry has entered a period that can be called the 'integration stage'. During this time, the industry has focused more on optimization work rather than 'creating something from nothing' with completely new innovations. This integration and optimization is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:
1) Infrastructure
2) Application Scenarios
3) Leading Winners
Optimization and Integration Trends in the Crypto Industry in 2024
1) Optimization: Infrastructure in 2024
The maturity of infrastructure has made crypto technology no longer a bottleneck for industry development. This achievement stems from a large number of technical optimizations rather than disruptive new architectures. These optimizations may have allowed the crypto industry to meet the conditions for welcoming a 'bull market' for the first time, specifically including:
Block space is more abundant;
Development toolchains are increasingly improving;
User transaction fees are almost zero or completely waived;
The complexity of wallet usage has been significantly reduced;
The user experience of on-chain applications is gradually comparable to consumer-grade products in Web2.
Currently, this abstraction of infrastructure, performance improvement, and reliability enhancement has just entered the 12 to 18 months phase. For example, the development of Ethereum L2, the stability improvement of Solana, and the application of wallet abstraction technology in actual production environments have all seen development but have not yet reached optimal levels.
2) Integration: Application Scenarios and Leading Winners in 2024
Two key application scenarios have gradually matured: speculation and stablecoins. These two scenarios have almost spanned the entire development history of the crypto industry:
Bitcoin (2009) is the earliest speculative asset in the crypto industry;
Stablecoins are among the earliest Token applications (USDT started in 2014).
Today, these two scenarios have reached a new peak due to the optimization of infrastructure.
Peak performance of speculation: Memecoins
Memecoins are the ultimate embodiment of speculative behavior, and today their creation and trading have become extremely convenient and low-cost.
Seamless connection of stablecoins
Tools like Bridge have made the issuance and trading of stablecoins unprecedentedly efficient.
3) The Stronger Get Stronger Effect of Leading Winners
As the industry develops, past leading winners are further consolidating their positions, and their advantages continue to expand. These winners include:
Public Chains: Solana and Ethereum;
Wallets: Phantom;
Exchanges: Uniswap and Raydium.
These platforms have benefited greatly from the growth of stablecoins and speculative activities, and they can quickly adapt to market hotspots and speculative games like Memecoins and NFTs.
The Next Stage of the Crypto Industry
As the infrastructure bottleneck gradually fades, the other two major bottlenecks faced by the industry are also gradually emerging. These two major bottlenecks largely drive the current integration and optimization phase and hinder further innovative breakthroughs in the industry from 'zero to one'.
1) Bottleneck One: Infrastructure Issues
The infrastructure bottleneck is gradually dissipating. Technical optimizations rather than breakthrough architectural innovations have brought significant progress to the industry. Today, the available block space on the blockchain is ample, tools are maturing, transaction fees are approaching zero, wallet usage has become easier, and some on-chain applications can compete with the consumer experience of Web2.
2) Bottleneck Two: Hostile and Uncertain Regulatory Environment
The second bottleneck that needs to be addressed is the unfriendly and uncertain regulatory environment. However, this issue seems to be gradually alleviating. Trump's arrival has made it possible for the crypto industry to expect clearer regulatory rules in the U.S., eliminating bad projects and helping positive participants in the industry grow.
With the improvement of infrastructure performance and the regulatory environment becoming clearer, the industry is about to break through the third bottleneck - the talent issue.
3) Bottleneck Three: Talent Shortage
Since 2022, the number of new talents entering the crypto industry has been at a bottleneck state. This is understandable, as negative news and an uncertain regulatory environment have brought huge personal risks to founders. However, the lack of new talent has directly led to a stagnation in the industry's 'from nothing to something' innovations.
I believe this trend will begin to reverse next year through the following two steps:
A. The leaders in the integration stage will continue to expand their advantages. The success of these leading projects may exceed everyone's expectations. For example, Polymarket has proven this during this election cycle, and there will be more similar cases in the future. As on-chain applications gradually gain mainstream acceptance (whether by consumers or institutions), we will see:
Startups will go public;
More projects will issue Tokens;
Society's expectations for the influence of the crypto industry will be readjusted.
This is the first step in incentivizing the new generation of developers to gain a deeper understanding of the crypto industry. Only by attracting more new blood can the industry usher in a true next breakthrough.
B. The new generation of entrepreneurs will redefine the industry based on first principles. These new entrepreneurs will no longer be limited by traditional infrastructure and outdated ideas. They will conduct innovative experiments based on clear rules, focusing on the core of 'ownership', bringing new products and experiences to users.
Future Outlook: Finding Stability Through Verification
Although the crypto industry remains volatile, with the arrival of new rules, new talent, and new ideas, we hope that in the next five years, we will clearly know whether the crypto industry can transcend speculation and stablecoins to bring more actual value.
'Ownership' may become a core element of new products and networks, establishing deep connections with users through economic incentives, enabling these networks to achieve faster growth. Verification of breakthrough applications will become an important way to reduce long-term volatility.
