Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, dropping from around 99,000 points to a low of below 93,000 in the morning, with a decline of over 6,000 points. Meanwhile, Ethereum also surged, peaking around 3,550, driving significant recoveries in Ethereum series leaders LDO and ENS, which topped the BN gainers list yesterday. Currently, BNB and ORDI, which have not seen much recovery, can be key focuses, as they are projects within the Bitcoin ecosystem with trading volume and hotspots; typically, when a trending market emerges, it lasts for several days.
It's been previously noted that the market has been rising from the bottom without any significant pullback; perhaps institutions are making rotations, and the trend has been anticipated. However, altcoins have not been following the drop closely, which indicates that the altcoin explosion season is approaching! There is much anticipation for the upcoming altcoin market.
From now on, Bitcoin is not just extracting money but starting to 'bleed'; the fact that altcoins are not following the drop proves that as long as you play with leading or strong manipulated coins without chasing highs, there’s a high probability of not losing money. For example, the strong coins in the public chain like XTZ, FTM, and meme coins like wif, floki that were bought recently; the main battlefield still needs to allocate more to meme positions. At this stage, expecting dozens of times in returns is definitely unrealistic; at least macro conditions must allow for large-scale interest rate cuts before that can happen.
Next Wednesday's PCE data and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy minutes are also key points.
The macro background of the market since October 2024: In September 2024, this round of interest rate cuts began, coupled with Trump as the new U.S. president with a pro-crypto attitude; the tapering in Q1 next year may be nearing an end, along with spot ETFs. Although there hasn't been a significant easing yet, there is a shift from tightening to loosening, which is very promising for the new four-year cycle.
The first wave is from now until Q1 of next year, and then we will see if there is an economic recession in the U.S. or other black swan events; if so, it will be another 312, and then we will see a situation similar to that of 2020-2021, which will be shared in detail at that time.
If there is no economic recession in the U.S. and it achieves a soft landing, then there will be no 312; the music will continue to play and the dance will go on.
So what will Bitcoin's future trend look like?
The current trend is exactly the same as in 2020, starting to rise in October, doubling by November 25; last time it went from 10,000 to 20,000, this time it’s from 50,000 to 100,000.
After that, the last Friday of November every year is Black Friday, a traditional shopping frenzy in the West, which aligns with the pattern of declines during holiday seasons, as a large number of retail investors withdraw money to spend, pulling significant funds out of the crypto market.
Of course, the amount of money withdrawn isn't much, but many anticipate this kind of pullback, so even if they don't go shopping, they sell at the peaks, which, combined, increases the pullback effect.
In the last Black Friday, the price pulled back by 16%, this time it may pull back a bit less; looking at 87,500, it is a very good support level, and if it reaches that, entering directly is an option. Additionally, above 90,000 is also a good round number support.
Looking back at the last cycle, it slowly rose back after Black Friday, but the increase was not significant, and it took about 2 weeks of consolidation before continuing to explode; so this time could be similar.
ETH's current strength is apparent; large funds have entered, and while Bitcoin is plummeting, ETH is consolidating. Once Bitcoin warms up again, ETH will start to gain momentum, and any pullback can be an opportunity to accumulate.
ETH, SOL, and various small coins can still be accumulated at dips, and once the crypto market consolidates until early December, it will rise again, leading to another big wave!
Which potential coins are worth paying attention to right now?
ZEN
Upgraded to a public chain, covering all popular tracks.
Previously marked as an observation label by the top players, which was then removed, suggesting market manipulation.
Currently, it is almost fully circulating, with only a $200 million market capitalization; it's an asset under Grayscale that is severely undervalued.
STX
Stacks, as a cryptocurrency closely related to Bitcoin, has shown remarkable performance recently. The current price is $2.197, with an 8% increase in the last 24 hours. Its market capitalization exceeds $3 billion, ranking among the top 45 by market cap. The price movements of STX and Bitcoin are highly correlated, with a correlation coefficient of 0.86, making STX a highly volatile crypto asset. If Bitcoin continues to rise, STX may also see greater upward potential. Recently, STX has formed an accumulation pattern in the $2 to $2.05 range, indicating a potential breakout from the current range and a larger price increase.
Moreover, STX recently briefly broke through a four-month resistance level; despite a pullback, it remains above the 200-day moving average, indicating that its long-term upward trend has not changed. If Bitcoin continues its upward trend, STX's target price could reach $4, and market interest in STX is continuously increasing.
ARB
Arbitrum has recently performed quite strongly. The current price is $0.9178, with a 24-hour increase of 8.47%, and a market capitalization of $3.69 billion. Its price is already about 20.63% above its 200-day simple moving average, indicating a strong upward momentum and bullish market sentiment.
In the past 30 days, ARB has had 18 days of upward trading, accounting for 60% of total trading days. This indicates that its market performance has been consistently strong, with relatively high liquidity and trading activity.
In November, it is expected that ARB's price will fluctuate between $0.868065 and $3.00, with a potential investment return of up to 235.35%. As we enter December, its price is expected to fluctuate between $2.94 and $3.88, and if it reaches the predicted high, it could bring a potential return of 333.54%.
