11-26 Market Analysis Day, yesterday the US stock market rose, but Bitcoin plummeted, from 98800 to 92700, a drop of about 6%, which is also a relatively large drop at present. In fact, we have said before that Bitcoin needs to pull back. This one rushed too hard, and all indicators have the need for pullback, but it just doesn't pull back, but it finally pulled back recently. So what range will it pull back to? The first range is the red frame range, which is 88000-90000 range. You can add positions. If this position cannot be maintained, it will go down to 70,000, but I think the possibility is not high, because if it returns to the beginning of 7, it is estimated that there will be a lot of funds to buy.
So basically back to the beginning of 8, you have to get on board without hesitation!!
Liquidation data
The current 24-hour exchange liquidation data is 500 million US dollars. The last time we analyzed the market on Election Day on November 6, the liquidation was only 480 million US dollars, so the data is similar.
Let's look at the current long-short ratio. If we look at the long-short ratio in the last 7 days, we can see that there are still more shorts. It's a bit hard to believe, but I don't believe it either. I also think that this kind of bull market should have more longs! Although there was a sharp drop yesterday, there may be more shorts, but the data I pulled is for 7 days. The first picture below is the long-short ratio of 1 day, and the second picture is the long-short ratio of 7 days. It can be seen that the long-short ratio of 1 day is obviously short more than long. The ratio is estimated to be 2 long and 8 short, but the long-short ratio of 7 days is about 45 long and 55 short.
In the 7-day long-short ratio, most of the short positions will explode at 98,000-101,000, while the long positions will explode at 93,000-93,000. In fact, judging from the price alone, these two positions are relatively easy to reach, because as mentioned above, there is a support between 88,000 and 99,000. Then this week happens to be the last few days of the monthly line, because the monthly line needs to be adjusted, the best way is to adjust this month and continue to rush next month.
Other indicators
Fear Greed Index
The current Fear and Greed Index is 79, which is still in a greedy state. I notified the group a few days ago that the Fear and Greed Index has reached 94, which is already at a historical high. Everyone should control their positions and not go long or increase leverage. At present, 79 is actually still a relatively high position. It may be better to continue to increase positions only when it reaches a neutral position.
The market has experienced a major correction, with Bitcoin plummeting by 6%. Where will the market go in the future?
AHR999 indicator
Currently, the AHR999 indicator has reached 1.3, exceeding the fixed investment line of 1.2, so retail investors are definitely not recommended to increase their Bitcoin positions. In fact, most of our friends’ positions are below 50,000 yuan, and many people may have a cost of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, so just wait patiently. The highest point of the last round of ahr999 indicator was above 9. According to the theory of carving a boat to find a sword, the current top range of BTC is far from being reached.
Escape indicator-2-year MA multiplier indicator
Judging from the current top-escaping indicator, we have only reached the mid-term. We can see that both the top in 2017 and the top in 2021 have touched the red line, and this red line means the 2-year average moving average multiplied by 5, so from this indicator, we have only reached the halfway point, so this round of 200,000 US dollars can really be seen!
BTC ETF Inflows
Do you still remember this picture? The inflow of BTC ETF on November 22 was 4 billion US dollars. On November 11, the data we saw was the previous red box, which was only 1.3 billion US dollars. Compared with the purchase volume in October at that time, this 1.3 billion was an explosive growth, but compared with the 4 billion on the 22nd, it was nothing. At that time, we also predicted the subsequent institutional buying, and 10 billion a day was possible, but many people did not believe it. Last week, the price of BTC was 90,000, and institutions were buying crazily, so the recent correction should not last long, and a charge will be launched next week.
Market BTC&ETF Analysis
From a weekly perspective, there is definitely no problem with this bull market, and the maximum retracement of this wave is only to the purple box part, 79,000.
From the perspective of daily level retracement, it will only retrace to the extreme position of 1.618-2.628, with the upper edge of 88000. According to the long-short liquidation ratio above, many short orders will be swept away by this point. Once the short orders are swept away, long orders will dominate. So this position is actually very good.
Eth
ETH will definitely reach 4000-4500, and 3100 is a low on the daily level. Although it is currently at 3000, it is still cost-effective.
Note: This article does not contain any investment guidance or advice. The risks in the crypto field are huge. This is just a personal opinion!
