Overnight, BTC counterattacked the 5-day line and led to a general rise in the altcoin sector. After being blocked, it closed with a cross star. This morning, Bitcoin (BTC) continued to reverse, once breaking through 93k, and dragged the 5-day line to turn around and start to go down. Grayscale likes to give you a blow at the critical moment.
In the past 24 hours, 160,000 people had their positions liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, with a total amount of US$518 million.
This has caused many friends to start worrying that the bull market is over! It is true that once you get too excited, the market will pour cold water on you. Once you increase your position, the market will fall and you will suffer a floating loss.
MicroStrategy increases its holdings, is it madness or faith?
From the above chart, we can see that MicroStrategy has spent about 12 billion US dollars since November, and its average holding cost has increased significantly to 56,658.9 US dollars, showing a strategy of quickly building positions on the eve of the bull market. Its funds mainly come from convertible bond financing. (The only diamond hands in this bull market are MicroStrategy and BlackRock, and they will definitely be the biggest winners. What are you afraid of?)
As shown in the above figure, Bitcoin ETFs are still inflowing, and the trend is still upward. Besides, the interest rate cut cycle is still here. Not to mention the distant future, there will be another interest rate cut on the 18th of next month. Now for spot goods, it is just a matter of choosing high-quality varieties and holding on to them. Don't worry too much. Moreover, this round of bull market may not have the same plunge as in previous bull markets. The correction can be done in batches! (Of course, don't be stubborn and do nothing. The profit is limited and the risk of being exposed is high. It's really unnecessary.)
So if you want to buy at the bottom, this is the last chance to get on board the bull market. The adjustment position has also reached yesterday’s expectations, and it will continue to stretch after the subsequent adjustments are completed.
Today's daily BTC market analysis, from the K-line, the 1-hour level will enter an upward trend, the 4-hour level is down, the 12-hour level is down, and the daily level is down. The intraday support is 92000-93000, and the upper resistance is 95000-96000.
The adjustment of Bitcoin may become an opportunity for the rebound of the copycat
We expect that only a correction in Bitcoin can provide room for altcoins to rise. Retail investors think differently from institutions. Institutions usually prefer the leaders in the market, while retail investors are keen on pursuing overtaking. Therefore, in the market where Bitcoin is the only one in the market, many altcoins have a strong demand for rising. Retail investors saw this point and invested funds in the altcoin market, driving the rise of altcoins, which also laid the foundation for Bitcoin to break through 100,000.
The ideal situation is that Bitcoin fluctuates at a high level, allowing Ethereum to take over and drive a series of altcoins to take off. When Ethereum starts to rise, even if Bitcoin falls below the 92,500 support level, it can provide Ethereum with room for a callback. This virtuous cycle helps maintain the bull market trend.
If only Bitcoin rises in the market, retail investors may stagnate because they cannot keep up with the pace of Bitcoin. However, the compensatory rise of altcoins is more likely to attract retail investors' funds to enter, further driving the rise of Bitcoin. Through this interaction of funds and emotions, the rotation between Bitcoin and altcoins will form a typical "altcoin bull market".
ETH's efforts have triggered the alt-season, is the opportunity in the crypto market coming?
Macroeconomic background: This round of interest rate cuts will start in September 2024. With Trump, the new US president who is friendly to cryptocurrencies, the balance sheet reduction may be coming to an end in Q1 next year, plus spot ETFs. Although there is no release of funds, it has finally moved from tightening to easing. The new four years are very worth looking forward to.
The first wave is from now to Q1 of next year, and then we will see whether there will be a US economic recession or other black swans. If so, it will be another 312. After that, it will be a similar situation in 2020-21. I will share the details at that time.
If the US economy had not experienced a recession and a soft landing, there would have been no 312, and the music and dance would have continued.
BTC, SOL, BNB and the new public chain SUI have risen, driving the growth of the MEME track. Other tracks have not moved much. As we analyzed in the previous article, ETH needs to make an effort. Coincidentally, ETH is making an effort at the moment and seems to have started the second wave.
Since ETH has started its second wave of growth, given the general background, it is very likely that the entire track of the altcoin market will see a general rise. However, if you want to see a specific track doing well, then it is worth choosing: new old blockchains, MEME, L2 on ETH, and AI-related projects (such as AI+MEME). As for games, it is not that I will not choose them, but they may be put at the back of my mind.
What the crypto market is hyping will often eventually be reflected in specific currencies. So how do we find and judge the next track for crypto market hype? We can look at the projects launched on Binance, the U.S. macro situation, and reports from major U.S. media.
From 2022 to now, the most launched projects on Binance are public chains, Meme, L2, games, AI, DEFI (I don’t want to write about this track, what’s the matter? If you want to get rich quickly, Meme and public chains are not enough to play with), RWA and DEPIN (there are signs). As for other tracks, the same thing applies. If you want to get rich quickly, Meme, L1, games, and AI are not enough for you to seize the opportunity.
When it comes to grasping new market narratives and new tracks, Binance is the industry's weather vane. Coupled with Binance's liquidity, this cannot be questioned.
More important is the information from the United States. Apart from anything else, the increase in DOGE and PNUT speaks for itself. So we must pay attention. As for SOL, don’t forget that this is a project made by the US’s awesome capital investment and market makers. In fact, SUI, APT, OMNI, ALT, etc. are all these.
The timing and coin selection have been noted. It is not difficult to get on the train, but how about getting off? Any project should be able to calculate the possible valuation based on the market background, the track it belongs to, the exchange it is listed on (Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, OKX), the market maker it belongs to (the nature of the market maker), the ceiling of the same track, the narrative prospects of the track, etc. No project can always pull the market up, there will always be a wash, even for BTC. The market is anti-human, and emotional FOMO is not good, very bad.
