Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank/Institutional Opinion Summary
Abroad
1. Morgan Stanley: The dollar will peak before the end of the year and enter a 'bear market pattern' in 2025.
Morgan Stanley expects the dollar to peak before the end of the year and then enter a 'bear market pattern', slowly declining in 2025. The bank believes that, given that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates while the Reserve Bank of Australia will take a gradual easing approach, the yen and the Australian dollar have the greatest potential for appreciation next year.
2. Moody's: During Trump's presidency, market uncertainty has become a norm.
Moody's senior economist Katrina Ell stated that Trump's announcement on social media to impose tariffs on major trading partners reminds people of the potential volatility his presidency may bring to the market. She said that, in fact, there was no preparation before Trump's policy announcement, which caused significant anxiety in the market. We do not know what will ultimately happen. No one can be certain about the timing of Trump's campaign promises being fulfilled. But it is certain that we are heading toward a high degree of uncertainty. People hope that if countries like Mexico and Canada resolve issues to some extent, trade tensions may ease. If they choose to show strength, things could escalate, and Trump would double down, leading to greater ripple effects on other economies.
3. Saxo Bank: Trump's nomination of the Treasury Secretary led to a drop in gold futures.
After US President-elect Donald Trump's appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, gold futures fell. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen stated in a report that Trump's selection of hedge fund billionaire Bessent as his Treasury Secretary dampened safe-haven behavior, leading to slight declines in gold, the dollar, and US Treasury yields, while the stock market rose. Hansen noted that Bessent is known as a fiscal hawk who believes tariffs should be used more as a negotiation tool and implemented gradually. He added that following the announcement, gold prices plummeted, reflecting diminished concerns over the US debt situation and pressure on recently established long positions.
4. ING: The Fed's rate cut allows the dollar to remain strong.
ING analyst Chris Turner believes that even if the Fed cuts rates in December, the dollar may remain strong until the end of the year. There are differences in the market regarding whether the Fed will cut rates next month, but the institution expects a 25 basis point cut. Turner stated that a rate cut could pose adverse factors for the dollar, along with potential seasonal weakness and excessive positions betting on dollar appreciation. However, amid geopolitical uncertainty and the US economy outperforming the Eurozone, demand for safe-haven assets should continue to support the dollar.
5. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation: Trump's tariff threats may suppress Asian currencies, and the dollar's trend remains uncertain.
Two members of the Global Market Research team at Singapore's Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation stated that US President-elect Trump's promise to impose tariffs on products from Mexico, Canada, and China could temporarily put Asian currencies at a disadvantage. In a research report, they noted that the threats of tariffs, increased geopolitical uncertainty, and lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts could provide broad support for the dollar at low levels. However, the dollar's overvaluation, technical signals, and potential seasonal effects in December could slow or even reverse the dollar's momentum.
6. Deutsche Bank: It is expected that the euro will fall to parity against the dollar in 2025.
Deutsche Bank's strategist expects the euro to fall to parity against the dollar in the second quarter of 2025, citing the ECB's repricing and additional dollar risk premium.
Domestic
1. CITIC Construction Investment: Continuing to be optimistic about the Chinese stock market's 'confidence re-evaluation bull' in the medium term.
CITIC Construction Investment's strategy team led by Chen Guo stated that they remain optimistic about the Chinese stock market's 'confidence re-evaluation bull' in the medium term, believing that as policies gradually intensify and yield results, the bull market in 2025 is expected to transition from a 'liquidity bull' to a 'fundamental bull.' Although fluctuations and differentiation are inevitable in the process, the market will not lack investment opportunities. In the short term, we first favor the year-end and early-year cross-year market, leaning towards overweighting several key clues: asset re-evaluation, financial real estate and debt relief beneficiaries, resilient assets of new productivity, beneficiaries of fiscal policies in 'dual heavy' and 'dual new' categories, service consumption, and potential beneficiaries of deepening supply-side reform themes.
2. CITIC Construction Investment: In 2025, non-ferrous asset allocation should focus on four types of investment opportunities: artificial intelligence new materials, explosive demand for minor metals, upward trends in precious metals, and profit opportunities in basic metals such as aluminum.
CITIC Construction Investment points out that in 2024, non-ferrous commodities are mainly driven by three logics: (1) Excessive issuance of US dollars and credit reconstruction, the beginning of a rate cut cycle in the US, ushering in a new cycle for bulk commodities; (2) The Fourth Industrial Revolution will significantly increase the demand for related metals, especially strategic minor metals, with new productivity in new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence initiating a new demand cycle for certain commodities. As the US and EU interest rate hike cycles end and China’s fiscal and monetary policies resonate, global economic improvements will boost non-ferrous demand; (3) With constraints from dual carbon policies, visible effects of supply-side reforms, prevailing resource protectionism, and insufficient capital expenditure leading to rigid supply constraints, supply will maintain low growth. Looking towards 2025, non-ferrous asset allocation should focus on four types of investment opportunities: (1) New materials in artificial intelligence entering a long-term demand cycle; (2) Minor metals representing 'new productivity elements' entering a demand cycle; (3) Precious metals maintaining an upward trend; (4) Basic metals, especially aluminum, will usher in a year of bumper profits.
3. CITIC Securities: It is expected that the Central Economic Work Conference in 2024 will maintain a positive tone on next year's macro policies.
CITIC Securities Research Report indicates that the Central Economic Work Conference is expected to be held in mid-December 2024, where the current economic situation will be analyzed and the economic work targets for 2025 will be set. It is expected that the conference will maintain a positive tone for next year's macro policies, and the subsequent new round of policy deployment will significantly boost market confidence: 1) Debt reduction: Accelerate the allocation and issuance of special bonds for replacement; 2) Real estate: Implement urban village renovations, restrictions on land acquisition and storage, and relaxation of demand-side policies; 3) Consumer goods consumption will continue to expand through trade-ins, and service consumption will broaden supply; 4) Science and technology and industrial policies will focus on industrial upgrading, self-control, and private enterprise participation; 5) Boosting the capital market and deepening state-owned enterprise reform will resonate, improving investor returns.
4. Galaxy Securities: There is still considerable room for improvement in the valuation of state-owned military enterprises.
China Galaxy Securities Research Report indicates that China is exploring a valuation system with Chinese characteristics, and there is still considerable room for improvement in central state-owned military enterprises. Firstly, state-owned enterprise reform has entered a deep-water zone, with greater demands for quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in central enterprises, leading to steady improvements in the operational quality of military central enterprises; secondly, the overall asset securitization rate of military central enterprises is relatively low, and value re-evaluation can be achieved through the injection/separation of quality assets and accelerating industrial chain integration and listing; again, the management methods for assessing the market value of central enterprises are being comprehensively implemented, and the 'one enterprise, one policy' assessment management approach will aid in the value re-evaluation of central enterprises.
5. Guotai Junan: Consumer building materials are expected to benefit from improvements in channel turnover due to credit expansion.
Guotai Junan Research Report states that looking towards 2025, assuming the current decline in physical demand is entering its final stage, the bulk industry may see a bottom rebound in unit profit centers, and consumer building materials are expected to benefit from improvements in channel turnover due to credit expansion. Against the backdrop of new market value management policies, leading enterprises with weight have stronger motivation and greater valuation uplift potential.
6. CICC: The influx of individual investors into the market is favorably driving funds towards small-cap styles.
CICC Research Report points out that individual investors are actively participating, with new A-share accounts on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rebounding to 6.85 million in October, marking the third highest level in history for a single month. The margin financing balance has significantly increased and trading activity has improved. As of November 21, the margin financing balance has rebounded to 1.83 trillion yuan, higher than the levels of 2021. In contrast, the holdings of public and private equity funds and northbound capital have not seen significant increases. The inflow of individual investors is favorably driving funds towards small-cap styles. Additionally, since September 24, the M&A and restructuring sector has garnered widespread attention from investors, also favoring small-cap styles.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data
