Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
Last month, the Meme trading platform Moonshot became popular, with the community claiming it solved the 'last mile' problem of Meme tokens and has a strong token listing effect. We validated in '(Promoting the Meme Trendsetter, Does Moonshot Really Have a Token Listing Effect?)' through backtesting that the token listing effect of Moonshot is extremely short-lived, only significantly effective around the five-minute period, with no medium to long-term beneficial effects, which is inconsistent with the community's promotion.
However, last week, CHILLGUY's market value surged from $16 million to $200 million within a day after being listed on Moonshot, and four days later reached a market value of $500 million.
To explore whether Moonshot has reversed the basic rule of 'short-lived token listing effects,' we reviewed the price fluctuation data of tokens listed on Moonshot over the past week, aiming to verify the accuracy of the conclusion once again.
Short-term token listing effects have strengthened, while long-term effects remain ineffective.
In the previous article, we concluded that the five-minute price increase of Moonshot tokens is significant, with slight differentiation after one hour, and differentiation begins after four hours, ultimately most tokens trend towards zero.
The price increases of the eleven tokens listed in the past week within five minutes, one hour, four hours, twenty-four hours, and to date are shown in the figure below.
It can be seen that the average price increase over five minutes has risen from 14.7% a month ago to 30.6%, and most can maintain this increase over one hour. This indicates that Moonshot tokens have likely become the domain of 'quantitative announcement robots,' with almost all of the five-minute price increase coming from Bot news arbitrage.
Extending the time frame, price fluctuations begin to differentiate. Most tokens, except for CHILLGUY, continue to decline, and some tokens are approaching zero.
Detailed data display
The price fluctuations of Moonshot tokens within five minutes are shown in the figure below. In this figure, we have included the closing market value one minute before the token went live for comparison. It is evident that the five-minute price increase of the token is significantly negatively correlated with the initial market value; the larger the market value, the less likely it is to rise, which further confirms that this phase's price increase is driven by news arbitrage Bots.
The price increase of tokens after one hour is shown in the figure below, with most maintaining their original increase. The author speculates that this may be due to the turnover between Bots and real users.
The price fluctuations after four hours and twenty-four hours are shown in the figure below (excluding CHILLGUY's excessive increase). The price fluctuations of various tokens begin to differentiate, but most 'break the issue' and continue to decline. By the twenty-four hour stage, out of ten tokens, six have decreased. Excluding CHILLGUY, the four-hour average price increase is 5%, and the twenty-four hour increase is -2%.
The price increase from the announcement of the token until now is shown in the figure below. Excluding CHILLGUY, the average decline reaches 41.5%.
In summary, it is very clear that CHILLGUY is just an exception among Moonshot tokens. The 'short-term token listing effect' of Moonshot has strengthened, but only arbitrage Bots can profit, while the 'medium to long-term wealth creation effect' still does not exist.
