Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Last month, the Meme trading platform Moonshot became popular, with the community claiming it solved the 'last mile' problem of Meme tokens and has a strong coin listing effect. We verified in '(Promoting Meme Barometer, Does Moonshot Really Have a Coin Listing Effect?)' through backtesting that the Moonshot coin listing effect is extremely short-lived, only significantly effective around the 5-minute mark, and there is no medium to long-term beneficial effect, which is inconsistent with community promotion.
However, last week, after CHILLGUY went live on Moonshot, its market value rose from $16 million to $200 million in one day, and reached a market value of $500 million four days later.
To explore whether Moonshot has reversed the basic rule of 'short-lived coin listing effects', we reviewed the price fluctuation data of tokens listed on Moonshot in the past week, aiming to verify the accuracy of the conclusion again.
The short-term coin listing effect has strengthened, while the long-term remains ineffective.
In the previous article, we concluded that the price increase of Moonshot coins is significant in the first 5 minutes, slightly differentiated in 1 hour, starts to diverge after 4 hours, and ultimately most tend to return to zero.
The price increases of the 11 tokens listed in the past week for 5 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, 24 hours, and to date are shown in the figure below.
It can be seen that the average price increase in 5 minutes rose from 14.7% a month ago to 30.6%, and most can maintain this increase in the 1-hour phase. This indicates that Moonshot coin listing has likely become the domain of 'quantitative announcement robots', with the 5-minute price increase almost entirely brought about by bot news arbitrage.
Extending the time frame, the price changes start to diverge. Most continue to decline except for CHILLGUY, with some tokens already nearing zero.
Detailed data display
The price fluctuations of Moonshot coins in five minutes are shown in the figure below. In this figure, we added the closing market value one minute before the token went live for comparison. It is clear that the price increase in 5 minutes is negatively correlated with the initial market value, indicating that the larger the market value, the harder it is to rise, or it again confirms that the price increase in this stage is brought about by news arbitrage bots.
The price increase of tokens in the first hour is shown in the figure below, most maintain their original increase, the author speculates that this may be due to the turnover between bots and real users.
The price fluctuations in 4 hours and 24 hours are shown in the figure below (except for CHILLGUY's excessive increase, which is no longer displayed). The price changes of various tokens start to diverge, but most 'break' and continue to decline. By the 24-hour stage, 6 out of 10 tokens have fallen, with an average increase of 5% in 4 hours excluding CHILLGUY, and a decrease of -2% in 24 hours.
The price increase of tokens since the announcement is shown in the figure below, with an average decline of 41.5% not counting CHILLGUY.
In summary, it is very clear that CHILLGUY is just an exception among Moonshot coins. The 'short-term coin listing effect' of Moonshot is enhanced, but only arbitrage bots can profit, while the 'medium to long-term wealth effect' still does not exist.
