Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Azuma (@azuma_eth)
The process of BTC first hitting $100,000 seems to be temporarily declared a failure.
From last night until early this morning, BTC experienced its largest "small pullback" in half a month. OKX market data shows that BTC briefly dropped to 92601.6 USDT this morning, and as of the time of writing (around 10:30, with all subsequent market data taken at this time), it is reported at 94620 USDT, with a 24-hour decline of 2.91%.
The emphasis on being a "small pullback" is because, although BTC has dropped more than 6000 USDT from yesterday's high (98876 USDT), based on the current price benchmark of 90,000 USDT, the maximum decline is less than 5%, which somewhat deviates from our previous thinking patterns.
The most intuitive difference in this pullback is that Alt-coins did not experience the usual "immediate collapse" when encountering a major pullback; while the prolonged surge of most Alt-coins has encountered a slowdown, the overall decline is not significant, and some still maintain small gains.
ETH, which is in a catch-up state, has surprisingly shown some resilience, reporting at 3452.2 USDT as of the time of writing, with a 24-hour increase of 3.27%, along with ecosystem projects like LDO, ENS, and EIGEN maintaining strong performance temporarily.
SOL, which recently set a new high, has entered a pullback phase, reporting at 239.21 USDT, with a 24-hour decline of 4.33%. Additionally, possibly due to the DEXX hacker starting to sell off, the Solana ecosystem meme sector has encountered a widespread decline, with MOODENG, SLERF, and BONK all dropping over 10%.
In the U.S. stock market, MicroStrategy (MSTR) closed at the $403.45 mark, down 4.37%; Coinbase (COIN) closed at $312.22, up 2.49%; MARA Holdings (MARA) closed at the $26.42 mark, up 1.5%.
CoinGecko data shows that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen back to $3.41 trillion, shrinking by 2.8% in 24 hours. The trading enthusiasm among cryptocurrency users has also significantly increased, with Alternative's fear and greed index reporting 79 today, still categorized as "extreme greed," but significantly down from last week's average of 90.
In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has seen liquidations of $526 million, with long liquidations still accounting for more than half, but short liquidations also reached $141 million. In terms of coins, BTC liquidations amounted to $146 million, and ETH liquidations amounted to $86.93 million.
Pullback Trigger: Profit-Taking Overbought Adjustment
In response to the short-term pullback in BTC, various institutions/traders have provided their market assessments.
Bitfinex mentioned in its latest report that long-term holders (LTH) have begun to take profits.
Crypto Banter analyst Kyledoops also mentioned the same data, pointing out that long-term Bitcoin holders have sold 128,000 BTC, although Bitcoin spot ETFs absorbed 90% of the selling pressure during the same period.
Another group of opinions focuses on the market's overbought structure.
Stephane Ouellette, CEO of cryptocurrency investment firm FRNT Financial Inc., stated, "Bitcoin has been overbought since Trump was elected, so the pause in the upward trend is a normal phenomenon."
IG Australia Pty market analyst Tony Sycamore also stated that the recent drop in Bitcoin is "a much-needed pullback to eliminate overbought data, rather than a reversal or any sinister situation."
Market Forecast: Is ETH More Optimistic?
As for the market trend in the future, various parties hold relatively different opinions.
Adrian Przelozny, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Independent Reserve, stated that the current bullish market sentiment will last until 2025; meanwhile, well-known trader Eugene noted that he has taken profits on long positions and advised investors to remain cautious.
In comparison, ETH, which has begun to enter a phase of catch-up, seems to have a more optimistic outlook.
On one hand, when BTC spot ETFs have begun to show net outflows, ending a week of net inflows; conversely, ETH spot ETFs have seen two days of net inflows, also ending a week of net outflows.
At the same time, well-known analyst Kaleo posted historical data indicating that in the last bull market, the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit the bottom 220 days after the halving, and today happens to be the 220th day after this halving... Considering that ETH has recently shown an upward trend against the market, it is not ruled out that a similar scenario may play out again.
As for the capital power of old coins, Bankless co-founder Ryan Sean Adams recently tweeted with clear direction—after Meme father Murad called for Chinese Meme coin players to join the Meme coin super cycle in Chinese, Ryan posted a Chinese tweet on X platform stating, "Ethereum is money" (similar to the machine translation of Ethereum is money), openly calling for Ethereum.
Previously, Ryan also stated (somewhat vacuously) that "when demand finally arrives, ETH will experience an unprecedented supply shock, and then Ethereum will be in short supply."
