BTC showed a significant unilateral surge yesterday, rapidly rising from around 0.44 to 0.62 (data taken from the chart), recording a 36.14% intra-day volatility. As bullish momentum is released, the price has shown some pullback at high levels, but overall it remains strong, with short-term moving averages diverging upwards, indicating that market sentiment is still leaning towards bullish.
From the 4-hour K-line chart:
The 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, and the price consistently stays above the 5-day moving average, indicating strong short-term market momentum and that bulls dominate.
During the rise, trading volume significantly increased, indicating that bullish funds are actively entering the market. However, after the price surged, the volume decreased, showing increased selling pressure at high levels.
The last K-line closed with a long upper shadow, indicating significant selling pressure from above, and the bullish momentum needs to be rebuilt.
Currently, the RSI has entered the overbought zone (>70), indicating a short-term need for a pullback. However, in a trending market, overbought does not necessarily mean that the price will inevitably fall, and support levels must be considered.
The fast and slow lines show bullish expansion, but the length of the red bars has started to shorten, indicating a weakening of bullish strength, which may face a brief adjustment.
Based on the current market structure and technical indicators, the following key points and operational strategies are given:
First support level: 0.56
Second support level: 0.50
Stop loss level: 0.48
Resistance level: 0.65
Prediction for today's volatility range: 0.56 - 0.65
Short-term bullish strategy:
If the price pulls back to the 0.56-0.58 range and stabilizes, you can make a light long position, targeting 0.63, with a stop loss set at 0.55.
If the price directly breaks through 0.65, you can chase long up to 0.68 and closely follow the take-profit and stop-loss strategy.
It is not recommended to blindly chase after bullish positions in the RSI overbought area; you should wait for a pullback to confirm the support level before considering entry to avoid getting trapped at high levels. BTC is currently in a high-level consolidation phase after a strong rise, with a short-term technical pullback demand, but the overall bullish trend remains unchanged. In terms of operations, you need to closely follow the support levels, be cautious when chasing highs, and pay attention to stop loss and risk control.
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