With Trump winning the U.S. election, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler announced he would resign in January next year, and the Solana ETF, which analysts had deemed almost impossible to approve, seems to be gaining a turnaround. (Background: Solana has broken Ethereum's usage on Nansen for the first time in 4 years, with daily net fund inflows consistently ranking first) (Background: VanEck: Why did we apply for a Solana ETF? Bloomberg analysts reveal key listing factors) The BZX exchange of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) recently submitted four new Solana ETF applications. With Trump set to take office in January and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler announcing his departure, new opportunities for the approval of the Solana ETF may arise. Analysts believe that the SEC will shift from a "law enforcement-based" regulatory model back to a "disclosure-based" model. If the Solana ETF is approved, it will stimulate huge demand in the crypto ETF market. Currently, Solana, as the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, although lacking support from a mature futures market and facing potential hurdles of being classified as a security, is steadily advancing its ETF application amid expectations of a new regulatory environment. Four institutions are racing to apply for the Solana ETF, which was previously deemed "almost impossible". On November 22, Cboe BZX exchange filings showed that the exchange proposed to list and trade four types of Solana ETFs on its platform. These ETFs are initiated by Bitwise, VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Funds, classified as "commodity-based trust fund shares" and submitted under Rule 14.11 (e)(4). If the SEC officially accepts the application, the final approval deadline is expected to be in early August 2025. Besides Bitcoin and Ethereum, the following cryptocurrencies are also awaiting ETF approval: ・XRP ETF: Canary Capital, Bitwise, and 21Shares have submitted applications. ・Solana ETF: Canary Capital, 21Shares, Bitwise, and VanEck are seeking approval. ・Litecoin ETF: Canary Capital has submitted an application. ・HBAR ETF: Canary Capital has submitted an application. Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, stated on November 21 that there are reports that at least one issuer is also attempting to apply for an ETF for ADA (Cardano) or AVAX (Avalanche). Currently, some industry insiders believe that the chances of the Solana ETF passing rank higher than other ETFs. However, just three months ago, public reports indicated that the CBOE had removed the 19b-4 application for two potential Solana ETFs from the "Pending Rule Changes" page of its website. At that time, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas commented that after Cboe removed the 19b-4 application for the Solana ETF from its website, the chances of the Solana ETF being approved were almost nonexistent. But now, the new regulatory environment may bring significant changes... Expected regulatory changes: SEC will return to a disclosure-based regulatory model. Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, stated that he believes the Solana ETF is very likely to be approved by the end of next year: "It seems that the SEC is communicating with issuers about this product, which is clearly a positive sign." Alexander Blume, CEO of Two Prime Digital Assets, agrees with this view, stating that if issuers did not have a strong confidence in success, they would not waste time and resources on this matter. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, the earliest applicant for the Solana ETF, stated: "It is precisely the SEC under Gary Gensler's leadership that has broken the long-standing traditional process based on rules and regulated through enforcement. Returning to a disclosure-based conventional system will bring about more innovative possibilities. I believe that the likelihood of launching the Solana ETF before the end of next year is very high." However, in contrast to VanEck's optimistic attitude, Robert Mitchnik, head of BlackRock's digital asset division, which has the largest Bitcoin ETF, stated that the company has little interest in crypto products outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Solana is experiencing strong growth momentum, but what potential challenges do its applications face? Boosted by meme market sentiment, Solana's growth momentum this year has been significant. Solana's native token SOL broke the previous historical high of $259.96 set at the end of 2021 on November 23, reaching $263.83, with a market capitalization of $121.1 billion, making it the fourth largest cryptocurrency. What potential application obstacles are speculated for the Solana ETF in the future? Looking back at previous Ethereum ETF applications, during the approval announcement for the Ethereum ETF, the SEC adopted an analytical framework called the "Ark Analysis Test", provided by Ark Funds and adopted by the SEC. This framework listed several key reasons that ultimately led to the approval of the Ethereum ETF: First is the existence of futures trading: The approval of a spot ETF must be based on a mature futures trading market, especially exchanges recognized by authorities, such as CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). Second, the price deviation between futures ETFs and spot prices cannot be too large. This proves that the market will not be manipulated due to the spot ETF. Additionally, a certain level of market maturity is required. Futures ETFs have been executed for a period of time and have performed steadily, further supporting the maturity and stability of the spot market. Rob Marrocco, vice president and global head of ETF listings at CBOE, pointed out that to bring the Solana ETF to market, the only feasible way is to first launch the Solana futures ETF, and then pave the way for the spot ETF. He further stated that even if Solana futures ETFs are launched, they will need a period of trading to establish a performance record, and this process may take a long time and ultimately require a significant amount of time to complete. Solana has not traded futures on regulated platforms. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have been approved, they have a significant difference from Solana: Bitcoin and Ethereum futures trade on regulated Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which allows the SEC to monitor. Meanwhile, Solana...

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