On Monday, November 25, Bitcoin continued its decline from the weekend, dropping further and falling below $94,000 during trading. Bitcoin failed to break through the $100,000 mark last week, and profit-taking sentiment is strong, currently down about $6,000 from its historical high, breaking below the November 21 low of $93,850.62.
Ethereum remained relatively strong, with intraday gains reaching 3.9%, exceeding around $3500, but later also fell back, following Bitcoin's trend.
On that day, blockchain concept stocks had mixed performances. Kodak rose by 18.6%, Beyond Inc. rose over 9.4%, Ebang International ADR rose over 8.6%, Applied Digital rose over 8.4%, the Ether ETF FETH rose 6.65%, Robinhood rose about 3.3%, and the cryptocurrency exchange giant Coinbase rose about 2.5%. 'Bitcoin whale' MSTR fell over 4%, TeraWulf fell over 6%, and BTC Digital fell over 8%.
On the news front, Besant has been nominated by the US Treasury Secretary, and investors expect him to prioritize economic and market stability, ushering in the 'Mnuchin 2.0' era, knowing where the red lines are. The new government's fiscal policy will take a gradual approach, implementing tariff policies in stages, rather than as aggressively as promised during Trump's campaign. This caused the dollar and Bitcoin to fall, while US bonds rose.
There was also good news in the cryptocurrency circle on the same day. Currently, Wall Street is actively preparing to launch new cryptocurrency-related ETFs. With the election of Trump, a supporter of digital currency assets, as the next US president, media reports that executives and lawyers involved in ETFs are developing strategies to fully cater to the preferences of different investors.
The new cryptocurrency-related ETFs currently in preparation include both defensive ETFs aimed at professional fund managers interested in cryptocurrencies, as well as highly speculative bets aimed at high-risk preference individuals. Higher-risk cryptocurrency ETFs may focus on a variety of digital tokens and sometimes use leverage, options, or quantitative strategies.
Previously, some cryptocurrency-related ETFs that simply tracked Bitcoin have raised billions of dollars since the US election.
The industry generally expects that under Trump, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would be more accepting of new digital currency products than under the Biden administration. The SEC will have new leadership, and the ETF industry is entering a 'wild west' era.
Currently, several digital asset companies have applied to the SEC to launch ETFs tracking cryptocurrencies like Solana, XRP, and Litecoin. The chances of such ETFs being approved under Gary Gensler-led SEC are low, but their approval probability is higher under the new government leadership. Furthermore, tokens like Aave, Uniswap, and Maker are also suitable for ETF products.
On the same day, the well-known Wall Street firm Bernstein significantly raised its target price for 'Bitcoin whale' MSTR from $290 to $600, expecting a further 40% upside. This is in stark contrast to Citron's recent bearish outlook.
Bernstein expects that by 2033, MSTR will hold 4% of the global Bitcoin supply. Currently, the company holds 1.7% of the supply. Bernstein believes that MSTR's Bitcoin fund management model is unmatched. In Bernstein's view, Bitcoin is in a structural bull market, with favorable regulations, support from the US government, institutional adoption, and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
In addition, another brokerage firm, Canaccord, raised its target price for MSTR from $300 to $510 and reiterated its buy rating. Canaccord stated that a new approach should be taken to value MSTR. 'Traditional profit and loss statement earnings metrics are no longer applicable to MSTR because the company's software business only accounts for a single-digit percentage of its current enterprise value. The dollar-denominated appreciation per share of BTC reflects everything happening with MSTR.'
MSTR CEO Michael Saylor, when discussing being shorted, said that Citron does not understand where MSTR's premium over Bitcoin comes from. The company profits from volatility trading while also leveraging through ATM operations, so as long as Bitcoin continues to rise, the company can still make money, which is an important profit point that short sellers overlook. 'Based on an 80% Bitcoin price difference, $3 billion of ATM financing can bring $125 per share in earnings within 10 years.'
MSTR rose sharply by 6% before the US stock market opened on Monday, but later fell back, ultimately closing down more than 4%.
