What is meant to come will eventually come, though late, it has arrived!
In last Friday's article (Trend Extension), I once again warned of BTC high-level risks! Bitcoin set a new high of 99588 in the early morning of the 23rd, followed by several days of high-level fluctuations, including the weekend. Yesterday at 5 PM, it rebounded out of the 30-minute two-sell at 98871, followed by a volume drop in the early morning, hitting a low of 92600, and the current price is 94000.
Risks are all generated from rises. This time, the big drop in Bitcoin provided ample time for reduction. Of course, those who did not have time to reduce positions at high levels need not panic; it is just a 4-hour downward pullback now. The bull market has only reached the mid to late stages, and the overall direction is still bullish. Long-term positions may still hold steady, waiting for signals from large-level structures.
First, look at the daily chart of Bitcoin. The chart shows a strong top formation on the daily line. Combining the position of MACD and the alternating red and green bars, it is judged that at least a downward pullback on the daily line is needed. From the perspective of this level, the high MACD pulling back to the zero axis means that the secondary level needs to construct a center. In other words, after the completion of the secondary level center construction, it is highly likely to continue to break upward.
Now looking at the 4-hour chart, it can be seen that the internal structure of the 4-hour upward departure segment shows a three-segment divergence pattern, which is a classic reversal pattern in the Chande theory. A 4-hour downward pullback is about to occur here, and the range of this pullback can refer to the central range on the left side, with a high probability of a three-buy before moving to the next segment. As for the specific position to return to, attention needs to be paid to the growth evolution of the secondary level trend types.
Looking at the last 30-minute level, the internal structure of the 4-hour upward departure segment is very clear at this level. A classic two-center upward trend diverged downward after a pullback confirming the rebound trend.
Summary: Based on the current pullback strength, it is in a volume expansion non-divergent downward state, so the conclusion can be drawn: the downward trend will not end before a new 30-minute center appears. Those who want to catch the bottom are currently only at the small level bottom of 30 minutes and below, while large-level opportunities require patience, with a minimum time cycle of 7 to 10 days.
Trading is a system.
Trading mantra, as the poem goes:
Strategy is fundamental, logic is the framework.
Indicators are auxiliary, structure is king.
Planning is the spear, discipline is the shield.
Risk is paramount, mindset is defense.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!
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