On November 26, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate until December is 44.1%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 55.9%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate until January next year is 33.7%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 53.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 13.2%.

In the early morning, Bitcoin fluctuated downward and then entered a consolidation phase, until recently when the bears strongly increased their positions, breaking the low repeatedly, with a minimum spike to the 92666 position. The Ethereum market is slightly different, consistently fluctuating within a wide range, with attempts to test the lower support level but effectively increasing volume, failing to break through. Currently, the price has slightly warmed up, but the upward volume is clearly insufficient.

From the current market perspective, in the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands channel has significantly expanded, and after the price broke above 3500, it experienced a second spike, followed by a pullback to a key support area. The lower support first focuses on the EMA15 and the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. If this support is lost, further attention is needed on the support situation in the overlapping area of EMA30 and MA30. This may form a technical pattern of double spikes testing the bottom with the previous evening's low. Technical indicators show that the bear volume is not yet over, which may hint at a larger bearish trend in the short term, with bearish strength currently dominating. Therefore, we will follow the trend and first look at this pullback.

Short on Bitcoin 93300-93600, target around 91500.

Short on Ethereum 3420-3450, target around 3260.