Bitcoin is stuck. The $100K milestone that seemed inevitable has proven to be almost an impregnable fortress. Analysts have already turned their attention to Ethereum, which is gaining momentum while Bitcoin lags.
Over $100 million worth of BTC and ETH positions have been wiped out in liquidations across major exchanges, but surprisingly both assets have held their ground.
Bitcoin hasn’t dropped below $95,000, and Ethereum is still above $3,200. That’s the word now. The ceiling? For Bitcoin, it’s a stubborn $100,000 selloff wall that’s causing serious headaches for bulls.
QCP Capital captured the market’s frustration in a recent Telegram post . It noted that Bitcoin call options were only seeing real interest in late December, likely driven by the Trump administration’s expected pro-crypto policies in 2025.
On the other hand, Ethereum is enjoying a short-term rally, with risk-off reversals heavily skewed towards call options. Bitcoin’s dominance has fallen from 62% to 59% in just one week, and this trend could deepen if the $100k stalemate continues.
It’s not all bad news, though. Michael Saylor is planning to buy another Bitcoin, and if history is any guide, his wallet could set the market on fire. Whether that fire breaks $100,000 is anyone’s guess.
A Double-Edged Sword for Bitcoin Liquidity
Bitcoin smashed its previous all-time high on election night and has not stopped breaking boundaries since. Spot trading volumes have soared, breaking records with a seven-day moving average. Daily trading value topped $40 billion immediately after the election.
It’s now settled in the $25-35 billion range, still two to three times higher than the lackluster volumes seen earlier this year. Futures volumes aren’t far behind either. For the first time since 2021, Bitcoin futures activity is close to hitting a new record.
But here’s the problem: All this trading hasn’t made Bitcoin less fragile. The order book depth, which measures how much liquidity is available for trades, has actually become smaller. The spot order book depth has expanded by 1% in USD terms only because of price increases, not actual liquidity inflows.
When you look at it in terms of raw Bitcoin, the depth has shrunk. Ethereum and Solana show the same problem. The mismatch between trading volume and order book depth makes the market extremely sensitive.
Large volumes are supposed to be good, but with a shallow order book, any big trade or sudden news can send prices into a frenzy. QCP Capital describes this as “higher price elasticity.” In plain terms, prices swing more violently because there’s less ability to absorb shocks.
Bitcoin’s liquidity absorption ratio — a metric that compares daily spot volume to the average depth of the order book — underscores this tension. Such high ratios have only been seen twice in the past two years: during the early 2023 rally from $15,000 to $30,000, and the ETF-led rally that took bitcoin from $30,000 to $60,000.
Both were explosive moves, but neither came without risk. Now, the ratio has returned to those peak levels, signaling another potential breakout — but also an increased chance of a correction.
enj Ethereum is in the spotlight. Risk reversals — essentially a measure of how traders are positioning themselves — are skewed sharply toward call options. Traders are betting on Ethereum for the short term, unlike Bitcoin, where most of the action is in late December or later options.
Bitcoin’s dominance has dropped three percentage points in a week, and Ethereum looks set to pick up the slack. Solana, another prominent altcoin, is also seeing encouraging turnover, even if it hasn’t matched its 2021 cycle highs yet.
What Lies Beneath: Book Demand and Market Distortions
Bitcoin’s order book skew is another thorn in its side. This metric looks at the balance of sell orders versus buy orders. Right now, the skew is approaching levels we’ve only seen three times since 2022. What does that mean? Sellers are piling on the book, and buyers aren’t keeping up.
At extreme levels, this kind of imbalance makes the market ripe for a pullback. Interestingly, the drift has not stopped Bitcoin from rallying before. But with $100,000 looming as a psychological and technical barrier, the struggle this time around could be tougher.
The demand side of the order book is loaded, creating a wall of resistance that is hard to break without significant new demand. Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors aren’t exactly helping. Stocks are rising on hopes of tax cuts and improved growth, but the bond market is raising red flags.
Concerns about fiscal policy in 2025, inflation, and central bank independence could spill over into cryptocurrencies. If traditional risk assets falter, Bitcoin may not be saved.
Meanwhile, most altcoins’ turnover has returned to 2021 levels. Solana is an exception, showing resilience in both spot and futures markets.
However, Bitcoin remains the anchor of the market – for better or worse.
$$BTC
