"Will there suddenly be a major turnaround domestically one day in the future?"
This is a question raised by a reader at the end of an article.
Several years ago, I also wondered whether our country would suddenly have a major turnaround in crypto policy in the coming years.
But over the years, as my observations have become more careful and in-depth, I feel that this previous idea may have been overly naive.
We have all heard the saying: "Science knows no borders." I used to extend this saying to the field of technology, understanding it as technology having no borders either.
But now I believe that technology has clear national boundaries.
In terms of encryption technology, some of its inherent functions (such as permissionless, censorship-resistant, and global free flow) are actually inherently unsuitable for certain types of countries.
In such countries, even if encryption technology can have a growth period, it is only because its inherent functions have not yet triggered the boundaries, and once it triggers the boundaries, its growth process will inevitably come to an abrupt halt.
Under certain conditions remaining unchanged, it is actually wishful thinking to expect a major reversal in the development of encryption technology to occur in such countries.
If we set aside national sentiments and purely look at the characteristics of encryption technology itself, it seems that there are indeed only certain countries in the world that are most suitable for encryption technology and crypto assets.
Because in those countries, there has always been a force that is highly vigilant against overly powerful centralized forces since the establishment of the nation. It is precisely because of this force that two types of values have formed:
One type believes that a large government is needed to lead the country's progress;
One type believes that a small government is the fundamental to stimulate public creativity and create the country's future.
The interplay of these two types of values has jointly advanced the progress of a country.
And what encryption technology needs is precisely the objective environment created by the second type of values.
Although the second type of values may not always dominate the country's progress, it always has the opportunity to play a role for a period of time and create a relaxed and free environment during that time.
Once encryption technology encounters such an environment, the opportunity for rapid growth arises. And if a country in such an environment also has a strong financial foundation, an excellent market environment, and outstanding technological talent, it would be difficult for that country not to become a global crypto hub.
In a series of recent announcements by Trump, we can already clearly see some substantive actions he has taken regarding crypto policy.
For example, there are already reports that he may specifically establish a government department responsible for crypto affairs.
Moreover, whether it is him or his deputy, or the already announced cabinet members (such as the Secretary of the Treasury), they all hold a very friendly attitude towards crypto assets.
I believe that when Trump chose these people, he did not specifically examine their attitudes towards encryption technology and crypto assets, but as the old saying goes, "birds of a feather flock together," people with shared values naturally come together. Because he has such values, the people he chooses will naturally have similar values.
Therefore, I increasingly believe that his cabinet will still have highlights in terms of crypto policy.
There is also one thing that, although not directly related to Trump, I feel has intricate connections with his upcoming inauguration:
On November 22, Pennsylvania passed the (Bitcoin Rights Bill) with high votes and subsequently proposed the (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill).
If this (Reserve Bill) passes, it means Pennsylvania will consider Bitcoin as part of the state's reserves. With Pennsylvania as a precedent, I believe more Republican-controlled states may pass similar bills.
In fact, whether the federal government will include Bitcoin as a reserve or not, as long as a significant number of states in the U.S. include Bitcoin as a reserve, it will be a major benefit for Bitcoin.
Recently, many media outlets have said that Bitcoin's recent surge has already overdrawn the benefits that the Trump administration is about to introduce.
I don't see it that way; I still think the climax will be next year, and this round of Bitcoin's peak will not finish hastily this year.
