$BTC
Analysis of BTC's bull trap potential:
1. Signs of a bull trap:
- Volume:
+ Volume spikes when the price rebounds
+ But mainly sell orders (42.99% sell vs 34.82% buy)
+ Cash flow is still strongly withdrawing (-8,456 BTC in 5 days)
2. Technical analysis:
- MA lines:
+ Price is below all major MAs (9,20,50,99)
+ Short MA is below Long MA -> downtrend
+ MA(200) = 95,204 is currently a near resistance
- RSI & MACD:
+ RSI = 36.26 in the oversold zone
+ But no signs of a bottom and recovery yet
+ MACD is still sharply declining (-244.41)
3. Signs of a bull trap:
- Price slightly rebounds after a deep drop
- Volume increases but selling pressure > buying
- No confirmation from indicators (RSI, MACD)
- Cash flow continues to withdraw
- Price is stuck below many MA resistances
4. Assessment:
- Probability of a bull trap: HIGH (>70%) because:
+ No positive signs from indicators
+ Cash flow remains negative
+ Selling pressure is dominant
+ MA(200) resistance is close
5. Possible scenarios:
- Price may test MA(200) ≈ 95,200
- If it cannot break through -> reverse down
- Further decline target: 94,500 - 94,000
- Need to monitor volume and cash flow for confirmation