Based on the analysis of the BTC/USDT chart and the cash flow data, I assess the likelihood of a deep decline as follows:
Negative signals:
Cash flow data:
Net cash flow is negative (-146 BTC)
Selling pressure from large orders is increasing
Selling volume has surged in the last 24 hours
Technical analysis:
Price has broken through important support levels
MACD gives a strong sell signal
RSI below 50, with room to decrease
MA20 crosses below MA50
Target price range that may be tested:
28800-284243
77076-540081
Short term:
Near support: $84,000-85,000
Strong support: $82,000-83,000
Probability:
70% chance to test $84,000-85,000
60% chance to decline further to $82,000-83,000
Recommendation:
Do not attempt to catch the bottom because:
Selling pressure remains strong
No clear reversal signal yet
Cash flow remains negative
Trading strategy:
Wait for the price to reach the $82,000-84,000 range to accumulate
Divide purchase orders at different price levels
Set tight stop loss
Monitor further volume and cash flow fluctuations