Written by: 0xWeilan
The market, project, currency, and other information, opinions, and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Market Summary
After several days of consolidation last week, BTC regained momentum this week, recording six days of increase over seven trading days, ultimately achieving a weekly increase of 9.06%.
This week, BTC opened at $89,877.11 and closed at $98,028.18, with effective volume amplifying, achieving four consecutive weeks of increase. On November 22, it reached a historical high of $99,860, just one step away from the psychological $100,000 mark.
The expectation of pro-crypto policies in the U.S. and the continuous influx of capital provide both emotional and financial support for the euphoric rise of BTC.
Federal Reserve and Economic Data
The market believes that Trump's entry into office will boost the dollar, while the Federal Reserve's statement has also strengthened expectations of a reduction in interest rates next year, leading to a three-week rise in the dollar index, which peaked at 108 and ultimately closed at 107.503. Under the expectation of a strong dollar and the overall health of the U.S. economy, capital continues to flow into the U.S., driving the three major U.S. stock indexes that had adjusted last week to stabilize and rebound.
In terms of U.S. Treasury bonds, both the 2-year and 10-year yields remain above 4.3%. The uncertainty in the global economy and geopolitical conflicts have caused gold to regain upward momentum, rising for five consecutive trading days.
Previously, we judged that BTC would move independently of the Nasdaq, and this seems to be becoming a reality. This week, BTC rose by 9.06%, far exceeding the Nasdaq's 1.73%. Statistics show that the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq on a 30-day rolling basis has dropped to 0.46, the lowest level in five years.
Society worldwide, especially in the United States, is undergoing profound changes in its scrutiny of crypto assets, whether it is the continued inflow of BTC Spot ETF or the unexpected progress of the (U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act), which not only provides expected attraction for the market but also continuous capital inflow.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
Both major channels are experiencing explosive inflows.
This week, BTC Spot ETF inflows exceeded the previous two weeks' total of over $1.6 billion, reaching $3.333 billion, setting a record for the largest single-week inflow since its launch. Funds are still flowing in continuously, and BTC-related stocks like MicroStrategy in the U.S. stock market are also experiencing continuous volume growth.
The stablecoin channel saw an inflow of 6.721 billion this week, setting a record high since the start of this cycle. The continuous influx of capital not only drives BTC rapidly towards the $100,000 mark but also began to flow into Altcoins in the latter half of the week, with various competitive coins at low levels starting to record significant increases.
Although there is still about a week left, the inflow of funds in November has reached $10.054 billion, becoming the highest month since the start of this cycle. After the second half of the bull market kicks off, as asset prices rise and the wealth effect spreads, capital is likely to continue to flow in.
Apart from these two major channels, according to the announcement, MicroStrategy made a BTC purchase worth $4.6 billion the week before last. This shocking scale also explains the huge short-term increase and fierce selling, but why BTC prices failed to adjust.
Sell-off
In November, BTC's increase was nearly 42%, with both long and short positions showing substantial floating profits. With the $100,000 price level approaching, selling has continued this week after last week. Throughout the week, over 240,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, with over $700 million in profits locked in just on the 21st alone.
However, overall profits from short positions still exceed 30%, and short-term selling is expected to continue.
The good news is that exchanges saw a net outflow of over 40,000 BTC throughout the week. More and more BTC is flowing into the hands of medium to long-term investors.
All technical indicators are currently overbought; however, enthusiasm and capital are extremely fierce. We anticipate that an adjustment will occur, but it is difficult to determine when and for how long it will last. The best strategy remains to hold long positions, as it is far from the time to exit.
Cycle Indicators
The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.875, indicating that the market is in an upward phase and showing a vigorous upward state.
EMC Labs was established by cryptocurrency asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investments, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as its core competitive advantage, aiming to participate in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, promoting the welfare of humanity through blockchain and crypto assets.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
