Author: Socra, Golden Finance.
On November 22, BTC surged to a high of $99,588, just a stone's throw from the $100,000 mark. This also pushed the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies to over $3.5 trillion, setting a new historical high, with Bitcoin's market share exceeding 55%. The market sentiment index shows it remains in a state of greed, with significant increases in market activity, and altcoins generally following the upward trend.
However, the market doused the enthusiasm of investors with cold water as BTC retreated below $96,000, with significant liquidations of long contracts occurring simultaneously, while the previously hot Meme projects have also seen a decline in interest. Despite many institutions being optimistic about future market trends, predicting an 85% likelihood of BTC reaching $100,000 by the end of the year, there are still views that caution against excessive optimism.
Bullish: $100,000 is just the starting point.
VanEck: Reiterates the target price of $180,000 for Bitcoin in this cycle remains unchanged. Key indicators suggest this rebound seems to have just begun. Since November 12, perpetual futures funding rates have remained above 10%, indicating strengthening bullish momentum; the current 30-day moving average relative to unrealized profit levels is about 0.54, typically indicating that the market will peak over a longer period; search term popularity is only 34% of the peak in May 2021, indicating speculative fervor has not yet spread, and the re-engagement of retail investors will give Bitcoin further room to rise.
Ripple CEO predicts that US cryptocurrencies will thrive, and Trump's presidency as a crypto-friendly president may improve the regulatory environment.
CryptoQuant CEO: Based on the pace of the bull markets in 2017 and 2020, Bitcoin is still in the early stages of price discovery in this bull market. Additionally, on-chain indicators set the highest price cycle for Bitcoin at $141,000.
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of this year and may reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, while Dogecoin may reach $1.
TYMIO founder Verbitskii: By the end of 2024 or early 2025, Bitcoin prices will be between $100,000 and $120,000—before President Trump takes office on January 20, 2025. As more traders enter the competition, BTC may reach $180,000 by the end of 2025.
Metafide CEO: Bitcoin will definitely reach $100,000 this year, may exceed $250,000 next year, and by the end of 2027, $500,000 could be entirely achievable.
EMJ Capital founder: The Thanksgiving period is usually a springboard for bullish sentiment in cryptocurrencies, and a real market structure is about to form. Additionally, the SEC may have new regulations for cryptocurrencies, and global adoption expansion along with US strategic Bitcoin reserves could become significant catalysts for the next Bitcoin bull market.
Fund company Intelligent Alpha: Bitcoin will reach $140,000.
Positive events and expectations.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) announced plans to launch the first cash-settled index options related to Bitcoin's spot price starting December 2 (Monday).
During last week's trading days (Eastern Time from November 18 to November 22), the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $3.38 billion, reaching a historic weekly net inflow high.
On November 22, MicroStrategy completed a $3 billion convertible note issuance to purchase more Bitcoin. Subsequently, the company's founder Michael Saylor hinted at potentially increasing Bitcoin holdings.
Bitcoin mining company MARA completes $1 billion in convertible note financing, with proceeds primarily used to purchase Bitcoin and repurchase existing convertible notes maturing in 2026.
The UK (The Times) discusses whether pensions should invest in Bitcoin, with plans to allocate 3% of pension funds to Bitcoin.
In the past 7 days, the Binance Bitcoin wallet balance decreased by 20,707.53 Bitcoins, while Coinbase Pro decreased by 3,322.95 Bitcoins.
Galaxy CEO: Almost all members of Trump's cabinet hold Bitcoin and are staunch supporters of digital assets.
The board of Nasdaq-listed Anixa Biosciences approved the purchase of Bitcoin as a reserve asset to achieve higher shareholder value.
The US-listed company SAIHEAT Limited has purchased $1.5 million worth of Bitcoin and currently holds about 102 Bitcoins, including staked and restricted Bitcoins.
Trump's 'Crypto Advisory Committee' will establish the previously promised Bitcoin reserve, which is expected to provide recommendations on digital asset policy, collaborate with Congress to advance cryptocurrency legislation, establish the Bitcoin reserve promised by Trump, and coordinate among various agencies, including the SEC, CFTC, and the Treasury.
Vaneck: The Trump administration will repeal restrictive measures like the SEC accounting bulletin and support broader adoption by encouraging banks to provide cryptocurrency custody solutions. Additionally, legislation allowing state banks to issue stablecoins may enhance the US's dominance in the digital asset ecosystem.
Potential risks and bearish factors.
Bloomberg: Bitcoin's rally has temporarily stalled as it approaches the $100,000 level, and may experience short-term consolidation. The bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin is becoming extreme, with sellers becoming more aggressive as Bitcoin nears the $100,000 threshold. Since the election, Bitcoin has been in a state of extreme overbuying, and it is destined to stall.
On November 21, Citron announced it had hedged using MicroStrategy short positions.
Data shows that the open contracts for Ethereum futures have exceeded $20 billion, reaching a historic high, indicating that more and more traders are betting on a decline in Ethereum's price. Meanwhile, the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) has peaked, reflecting a higher dependence on borrowed funds—this method amplifies the possibility of rapid liquidations.
Victory Securities: The macro risks of large negative shocks to the cryptocurrency market have passed, with risks now more focused on the realization of expectations. Funding rates have halved, and Bitcoin's short-term direction is not entirely one-sided, with shorts also building strength.
Galaxy CEO: Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 is inevitable, but a pullback may occur. Currently, there is a lot of leverage in the cryptocurrency market, and the crypto community is highly leveraged, hence a market correction is imminent. Stocks like MicroStrategy, which trade similarly to Bitcoin leveraged trading, may face larger adjustments.
Glassnode: Bitcoin's upward momentum still has room to run, but historical trajectories indicate significant pullback potential.
Summary.
Since Trump’s victory on November 6, Bitcoin has soared from around $70,000 to $100,000. In this approximately 20-day period, shorts have suffered heavy losses. As of the writing, Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows to around $99,000, reflecting the market's optimism about Bitcoin’s prospects. However, compared to the market environment a month and a half ago, there are evidently more unstable factors in the current crypto market. Therefore, investors still need to be wary of hidden downside risks.
