Author: Socra, Golden Finance
On November 22, BTC peaked at $99,588, very close to the $100,000 mark. This also allowed the total crypto market cap to surpass $3.5 trillion, setting a new historical high, with Bitcoin's market share exceeding 55%. The market sentiment index shows it remains in the greed phase, market activity has significantly increased, and altcoins generally have larger gains following the overall market trend.
However, the market has doused fervent investors with cold water at this time, as BTC retraced below $96,000, with large long contracts liquidated, while the heat of the Meme projects that had been hot for several consecutive days has also subsided. Although many institutions are optimistic about the future market, predictions show an 85% probability of BTC reaching $100,000 before the end of the year, there are still viewpoints arguing against excessive optimism.
Bullish: $100,000 is just the starting point
VanEck: Reiterating the target price of $180,000 for Bitcoin in this cycle remains unchanged; from key indicators, this rebound seems to have just begun. Since November 12, perpetual futures funding rates have been above 10%, indicating an increased bullish momentum; the current 30-day moving average relative to unrealized profit levels is about 0.54, usually indicating that the market will peak over a longer period; search term heat is only 34% of the peak in May 2021, indicating that speculative frenzy has not yet spread, and the re-engagement of retail investors will provide Bitcoin with further upward potential.
Ripple CEO predicts that cryptocurrency in the US will thrive and states that Trump becoming a crypto-friendly president could improve the regulatory environment.
CryptoQuant CEO: Based on the progress of the bull markets in 2017 and 2020, Bitcoin is still in the early stages of price discovery in this bull market. Additionally, on-chain indicators set Bitcoin's cycle peak price at $141,000.
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of this year, and by the end of 2025, it may reach $250,000, while Dogecoin may reach $1.
TYMIO Founder Verbitskii: By the end of 2024 or early 2025, the price of Bitcoin will be between $100,000 and $120,000—before President Trump takes office on January 20, 2025. As more traders join the competition, BTC may reach $180,000 by the end of 2025.
Metafide CEO: Bitcoin will definitely reach $100,000 this year, and may exceed $250,000 next year; by the end of 2027, $500,000 may be entirely achievable.
EMJ Capital Founder: The Thanksgiving period is usually a springboard for bullish times in cryptocurrency, and a real market structure is about to form. Additionally, the SEC may have new crypto regulatory policies, and global adoption expansion along with the US strategic Bitcoin reserve could become significant catalysts for Bitcoin, triggering the next bull market.
Fund company Intelligent Alpha: Bitcoin will reach $140,000.
Positive Events and Expectations
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) announced plans to launch its first cash-settled index options linked to Bitcoin spot prices starting December 2 (Monday).
During the last trading days (Eastern Time November 18 to November 22), Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $3.38 billion, reaching a historical weekly net inflow high.
On November 22, MicroStrategy completed a $3 billion convertible note issuance to purchase more Bitcoin. Subsequently, the company founder Michael Saylor hinted at potentially increasing their Bitcoin holdings.
Bitcoin mining company MARA has completed a $1 billion convertible note financing, with the proceeds mainly used to purchase Bitcoin and repurchase existing convertible notes due in 2026.
The UK (The Times) discusses whether pensions should invest in Bitcoin, planning to allocate 3% of pension funds to Bitcoin.
In the past 7 days, the Bitcoin wallet balance on Binance has decreased by 20,707.53 BTC, and on Coinbase Pro, it has decreased by 3,322.95 BTC.
Galaxy CEO: Almost all members of Trump's cabinet hold Bitcoin and are strong supporters of digital assets.
The board of Nasdaq-listed company Anixa Biosciences has approved the purchase of Bitcoin as a reserve asset to achieve higher shareholder value.
The US-listed company SAIHEAT Limited has purchased $1.5 million worth of Bitcoin, currently holding about 102 Bitcoins, including staked and restricted Bitcoins.
Trump’s 'Cryptocurrency Advisory Committee' will establish the previously promised Bitcoin reserve, which is expected to provide advice on digital asset policy and work with Congress to advance cryptocurrency legislation, establish the Bitcoin reserve promised by Trump, and coordinate among various agencies including the SEC, CFTC, and Treasury.
VanEck: The Trump administration will abolish restrictive measures such as the SEC accounting bulletins and support broader adoption by encouraging banks to offer cryptocurrency custody solutions. Additionally, legislation allowing state-chartered banks to issue stablecoins may enhance the US's dominance in the digital asset ecosystem.
Potential Risks and Bearish Sentiments
Bloomberg: The momentum of Bitcoin has temporarily stalled after nearing the $100,000 level, and it may undergo short-term consolidation. The bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin is becoming extreme, with sellers becoming more aggressive as Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 threshold. Since the election, Bitcoin has been in an extremely overbought state, and it is destined to stagnate.
On November 21, Citron stated it has hedged its short position in MicroStrategy.
Data shows that the open interest in Ethereum futures has exceeded $20 billion, setting a new historical high, indicating that more and more traders are betting on a decline in Ethereum’s price. Meanwhile, the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) has reached its peak, reflecting a higher degree of dependence on borrowed funds—this method amplifies the possibility of rapid liquidations.
Victory Securities: The macro risk of high-level negative shocks in the cryptocurrency market has passed, and risks are more focused on expectation fulfillment. Funding rates have halved, and the short-term direction of Bitcoin is not one-sided; short-sellers are also accumulating strength.
Galaxy CEO: Bitcoin breaking $100,000 is inevitable, but a pullback may occur. There is a lot of leverage in the cryptocurrency market, and the crypto community is highly leveraged, so a market correction is imminent. Stocks that trade similarly to Bitcoin leveraged trading, like MicroStrategy, may face greater adjustments.
Glassnode: The upward momentum of Bitcoin still has room to operate, but historical trajectories indicate significant pullback potential.
Summary
Since Trump’s victory on November 6, Bitcoin has skyrocketed from around $70,000 to $100,000. In this approximately 20-day period, short-sellers have suffered heavy losses. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has rebounded from a low to around $99,000, still reflecting the market's optimism about Bitcoin's prospects. However, compared to the market environment half a month ago, there are evidently more instability factors in the crypto market now. Therefore, investors still need to be cautious of hidden downside risks.
