Interests are the protagonists of every business story and also an eternal topic in our lives. Hello, fellow crypto enthusiasts! I am a seasoned student who has been involved in financial market investments for over ten years, focusing on cryptocurrency market analysis, aiming to provide excellent trading strategies for all crypto enthusiasts and walk alongside fellow consensus seekers!
Last night, I provided the entry points of 96850 and 96000. Currently, the BTC price has reached 98283. If you still hold long positions, continue to hold. The current important position for the battle between long and short is 98500. Short-term users can take profits and secure a profit of 2000 points.
There have been many recent favorable factors. I didn't want to elaborate on each one, but I found that many new users are still asking questions privately. Thus, I will provide a brief response in this article. A friendly reminder: this article is relatively long, and I hope it can help and serve as a reference for everyone.
1. First, let’s talk about the recent hot topic of the U.S. election. Historically, every presidential election has led to a surge in BTC prices; it’s just a matter of the pullback cycle, but ultimately, there are no exceptions to the upward trend. Why is Trump's election considered a historic opportunity? The reason lies in his policy stance regarding the crypto market, publicly promising never to sell BTC and making BTC a reserve asset of the U.S. For those paying attention, it's known that Trump has recently been making arrangements related to this promise, and his attitude seems quite proper so far. It is precisely because of Trump's policy stance that it undoubtedly represents a long-term benefit for the crypto market. The biggest issue with BTC lies in its security and regulatory risks. With the uncertainty of regulatory policies worldwide, it may be restricted or even banned in certain countries and regions. This uncertainty affects its legitimacy and market acceptance, leading many funds to hesitate to get involved. Trump's stance aims to address this gap and make BTC secure and compliant, and such policy pushes will dispel the doubts that have previously deterred investments, leading to a sustained increase in BTC prices.
2. Next, let’s talk about interest rate cuts. The U.S. has been forced to cut interest rates due to the national debt reaching 35 trillion. After the interest rate cut in November, I mentioned that the Federal Reserve would certainly portray that there wouldn’t be an interest rate cut in December. This is a smokescreen and a common tactic used by the U.S. Please remember, not just December’s interest rate cut, but all future interest rate cuts will definitely arrive on time. I will elaborate on the multiple benefits that interest rate cuts have for BTC from four directions:
1. Enhanced investment attractiveness: Interest rate cuts will lower the yields of traditional assets such as the dollar, leading investors to seek higher returns, thus possibly turning their attention to non-traditional assets like BTC, which will increase the market demand for Bitcoin.
2. Driving price increases: In a global environment of monetary easing, investors may view BTC as a tool to hedge against volatility and inflation in traditional financial markets, thereby driving its price up.
3. Increased market liquidity: Interest rate cuts will increase global market liquidity, and some funds may flow into the BTC market, enhancing its market liquidity and trading volume. The increase in trading activity will further attract more investors and funds.
4. Increased demand for safe-haven assets: Interest rate cuts are often seen as a signal of economic downturn risks. In an increasingly uncertain global financial environment, BTC is often considered 'digital gold' or a safe-haven asset. Investors may allocate a portion of their assets to Bitcoin to hedge against potential risks.
Thus, the rise of BTC cannot be separated from the significant policy push of interest rate cuts. As the product with the highest investment return rate currently, BTC is sure to gain favor, thereby driving its price up for a long time.
3. The issuance of Tether. Since the beginning of November until now, Tether has cumulatively issued over 10 billion USDT. Historically, after each issuance, the crypto market tends to see a significant increase in the following weeks. For example, the last issuance was on September 16, and everyone has seen the subsequent trends. What’s different this time is that previous issuances were around 1 billion, while this time the continuous issuance has reached historic levels. At this point, everyone should understand.
4. On the military front, the ongoing escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war poses a potential benefit for the crypto world. As previously mentioned, BTC serves as a safe-haven asset, and an escalation in conflict will attract some funds to flow into BTC, causing its price to rise. This was evident a few days ago when the Ukrainian military launched missiles at Russia, and BTC's price quickly rose by over 2000 points. At this point, some friends may wonder why the crypto market fell during the Middle East situation and the conflict between Iran and Israel, while the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war results in a rise? The impacts are from different levels; localized wars only lead to surges in energy and gold prices, while an escalation in war requires consideration of more channels for asset transport. Currently, the smoothest channel between countries is the crypto market. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war involves almost all major powers in the world, and whether from a safe-haven perspective or asset transport, it will lead to a short-term uptrend in the crypto market. Therefore, if the situation expands, it will perfectly resolve the funding gap for BTC before December, and there may even be a probability for a surge. Even if the situation does not expand, with the interest rate cut in December, everyone can still profit. Normal fluctuations will stabilize between 2000-3000 points, and the speed of rising after a pullback will definitely be rapid.
5. The increasing preference of institutions and funds for BTC. For instance, MicroStrategy's continuous investment in BTC and Microsoft's review of a BTC investment proposal on December 10. This has been mentioned before; with two months until Trump takes office, the smart money of the giants is already laying out plans in advance. Everyone should take a moment to think deeply about what kind of prospects are driving these global giants to intensify their attention and investment in BTC.
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In summary, the five brief points mentioned above are just some of the more significant favorable aspects. Therefore, this round of BTC can be labeled as a historic opportunity, which doesn’t come every year. This rally has gathered too much financial and policy support. A key point to note is the issuance of Tether. I have always been skeptical about USDT, as it is pegged to the dollar but lacks the backing of the Federal Reserve. For the crypto world, USDT has become the biggest hidden danger. In the short term, all cryptocurrencies will take advantage of this bull market opportunity to be listed, whether it's altcoins or USDT, both undoubtedly are part of the historic trend. When the tide recedes, only those left will be the naked participants. Over the year, within half a year before Trump takes office, it will definitely be a stage for the crypto world to accumulate strength. Only when Trump formally brings Bitcoin to the forefront will everyone see the true strength of the crypto world. Growth is certain, but the ending may not be too perfect.
At this stage, what everyone needs to do is to buy at low levels. Even if there is no deep pullback, entering the market with spot trading is still an option. A leverage of around twenty times is sufficient, so don't be greedy. If you can withstand a pullback of 3000, the profit will definitely be above 20,000 points. This is how I operate. For those who haven't entered the market yet, you can intervene in long positions at any time. Don't be deterred by historical highs; currently, there are no high points for Bitcoin, only low points. Enter the market at 98000-98300, and take profits around 99000-99300 in the short term. Consider whether to continue holding for the medium term until around 102500!
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