The 'altcoin season' often discussed in the cryptocurrency field refers to a period when altcoins surge in a short time, attracting newcomers to the market. The crypto market that has experienced bull-bear cycles is full of uncertainties and opportunities; only by continuously learning can one keep up with market changes and seize wealth opportunities. As the saying goes, 'One day in the crypto circle is like a year in the human world,' rapid changes are the unique charm of the crypto market.
The market from the end of 2020 to the first half of 2021 can be divided into three phases:
First wave (2020.10.5-2020.12.21): BTC surged significantly, ETH fluctuated with weaker performance.
Second wave (2020.12.28-2021.2.22): BTC fluctuated and corrected, while ETH started to surge significantly.
Third wave (2021.3.1-2021.5.19): BTC fluctuated at high levels, ETH entered a main upward trend until the big drop on May 19.
Performance of each sector is as follows:
Platform tokens (BNB, MX, HT, etc.): Significant increases since February 2021.
Meme sector (Doge, SHIB): Doge started at the end of the first wave, while SHIB began its main upward trend in January 2021.
Public chain sector (SOL, AVAX, ADA, etc.): Most started their main upward trends in December 2020, with some like THETA and NEAR starting in the later stages of the first wave.
Gaming and metaverse sector (AXS, MANA, SAND, etc.): Fluctuated upwards in the first wave, significantly surged in the second wave.
DeFi (UNI, SUSHI, MKR, etc.): The second wave began its main upward trend, with a few projects rising in the first wave.
Summary: BTC led the rise, followed by ETH, driving the main upward trend across various sectors. Most projects were listed on Binance between 2019-2020, reflecting Binance's keen grasp of market trends, especially creating many profit opportunities in MEME, L1, and gaming sectors.
The second wave of the main upward trend in 2021 lasted from July to the end of the year.
BTC and ETH rose almost simultaneously, driving the performance of multiple altcoin sectors:
Meme sector: Although DOGE did not surge significantly, SHIB multiplied tenfold after May 19, giving rise to new projects like BABYDOGE and FLOKI.
Public chain sector: AVAX, SOL, ADA, FTM, etc. performed outstandingly and reached new highs.
Gaming and metaverse: Projects like AXS, SAND, MANA, etc. surged to new heights.
DeFi sector: Overall performance has been weak, lacking new speculation.
Other sectors: Older coins like FIL, ETC, BCH, etc. have failed to attract new funds.
Summary of the 2021 bull market:
Macro background: After the 2020 election, the Federal Reserve's massive liquidity injection led to significant increases in BTC and ETH, with BTC rising from $10,000 to $69,000 and ETH from $340 to $4,870.
Altcoins generally surged: The first half of the year indeed saw a general rise, but in the second half, most sectors stagnated and the market began to adjust.
Public chains, gaming, metaverse, and MEME are the main speculative sectors, while DeFi and other niche sectors have shown weak performance. Most projects launched in 2020 continued to rise in 2021, while many projects launched in 2021 failed to remain active.
Summary: The altcoin surge in the bull market of 2021 mainly concentrated in public chains, gaming, and MEME sectors, while many newly launched projects in 2021 failed to survive, serving as a lesson for investors.
In the main upward trend from October 2023 to March 2024, BTC and ETH rose almost simultaneously, while the altcoin sector experienced new emerging projects like AI, ETH L2, and modular blockchains after the bear market in 2022, with the enthusiasm for the metaverse having dissipated.
The increase in each sector is as follows:
Public chains: Established public chains like ETH and SOL performed steadily, while new public chains like SEI, TIA, SUI, etc. saw increases of 5-10 times.
Meme: ORDI, SATS (BRC20 Meme), PEPE, WIF, etc. increased by over 5-10 times.
AI: Projects like ARKM, WLD, etc. saw increases of 5-10 times.
Gaming: Projects like PIXEL, PORTAL, XAI, etc. had smaller increases, between 50%-200%.
DeFi and infrastructure: PENDEL, ID, etc. increased by 5-10 times.
ETH L2: ARB, OP, STRK have small increases, only METIS has a 10-fold increase.
After experiencing the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, the pause in rate hikes in September 2023 has resulted in limited market liquidity, with capital concentrated in major sectors, making it difficult for altcoins to experience widespread increases. Public chains and Meme sectors continue to be favored, while the gaming sector has shown weaker performance due to insufficient liquidity. It is noteworthy that projects launched between 2022-2023 continue to perform actively, especially Meme and public chains.
Since October 2024, the MEME sector has seen the only significant rise in the market, with public chains like SOL and SUI also performing, and ETH seems to be gaining momentum.
In summary, the conclusion of this altcoin season
Macro background: The interest rate cut cycle starting in September 2024, along with Trump's crypto-friendly attitude, is shifting the market from tightening to easing. With the progress of spot ETFs, although there has not yet been full liquidity injection, the new four-year cycle is worth looking forward to.
First wave market: Expected to last until Q1 2024; if the US economy does not deteriorate or there are no black swan events, the market will continue to improve. BTC, SOL, BNB, and new public chain SUI have risen, driving the MEME sector upwards, while other sectors have shown tepid performance. ETH is gaining momentum and may start the second wave of increases.
Future market: If the US economy achieves a soft landing, the probability of widespread altcoin increases is high, especially for new and old public chains, MEME, L2 on ETH, and AI-related projects. The gaming sector may lag slightly.
How to seize opportunities: Observe new projects listed on Binance, especially public chains, MEME, L2, AI, and DEFI (the latter is more difficult to achieve quick wealth). Binance and US macro news are market barometers, and the涨幅 of projects like DOGE and PNUT serve as an example.
Market analysis: Projects like SOL, SUI, APT are driven by US capital, making them worth watching. When investing, choosing projects should consider not only the macro background but also analyze the sector, exchanges, market makers, and other factors to estimate the potential value of the projects. Any project will ultimately face a washout, so rational operations are needed to avoid blind following.
Today's article ends here, currently in a bull market, with excitement brewing, we share secrets every day.
