In September 1990, Marilyn vos Savant, holder of the highest recorded IQ, ignited a fierce debate that continues to captivate both mathematicians and the general public. Her controversial take on the Monty Hall Problem—a probability puzzle based on the classic TV game show Let’s Make a Deal—challenged conventional wisdom and sparked intense reactions from experts. Here's the breakdown of the Monty Hall Problem and why Marilyn’s answer, though initially criticized, turned out to be right!

🧩 The Monty Hall Problem: The Puzzle That Stumped Many

The scenario:

Three doors: Behind one is a car, behind the others, goats.

The contestant chooses a door. The host, knowing where the car is, opens a door to reveal a goat.

The contestant is then given the option: stay with their choice or switch to the other unopened door.

🏆 Marilyn’s Bold Answer: “Always Switch”

Marilyn vos Savant’s answer was simple and clear: Switch doors. Her reasoning? Switching increases the chance of winning from 1/3 to 2/3. But this answer was met with a storm of criticism!

🤯 The Backlash

Over 10,000 letters poured in, many from PhDs, claiming:

“You completely misunderstood probability.”

“This is the biggest blunder I’ve ever seen!”

“Maybe women don’t understand math like men do.”

📚 The Truth: Marilyn Was Right

Here’s the math: 1️⃣ Initial Choice Probability:

The chance of picking the car is 1/3.

The chance of picking a goat is 2/3.

2️⃣ Host’s Knowledge:

If the contestant’s initial pick is a goat (2/3 chance), the host reveals the other goat. Switching guarantees a win.

If the contestant’s initial pick is the car (1/3 chance), switching leads to a loss.

Conclusion: Switching results in a 2/3 chance of winning, while staying gives only a 1/3 chance.

💡 Why Does It Feel Counterintuitive?

1️⃣ Misjudging Probabilities: Many assume that after the host reveals a goat, the remaining doors each have a 50/50 chance, ignoring the original 1/3 and 2/3 probabilities. 2️⃣ Reset Bias: People often see the second choice as a fresh start, when it’s actually part of the initial setup. 3️⃣ Deceptive Simplicity: The three-door setup makes it feel simpler than it is, masking the complexity of the underlying math.

✅ Proof and Validation

Marilyn's answer was later confirmed by:

MIT running thousands of simulations, showing a 2/3 win rate for switching.

MythBusters testing the problem and verifying her explanation.

Apologies from academics who initially criticized her, admitting their mistake.

🧠 Marilyn vos Savant: A Genius Ahead of Her Time

IQ: 228, recognized by Guinness World Records.

By age 10, she read all 24 volumes of the Encyclopaedia Britannica.

Despite challenges in her youth, she showcased her brilliance in the Ask Marilyn column, solving complex puzzles and sparking debates.

💬 The Monty Hall Problem: A Lesson in Logic and Resilience

Marilyn’s story isn’t just about winning the debate—it’s about challenging popular beliefs and standing firm in the face of criticism. Her resilience shows us the importance of logic and the courage to question the obvious, even when facing widespread doubt.

❓ Do you agree with Marilyn’s answer?

Is switching the right strategy, or do you think there’s more to the puzzle than meets the eye? Let us know your thoughts below and join the conversation!

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