According to Jinshi Data, a recent survey shows that the dollar will stabilize by early 2025, but will face risks of accelerating U.S. inflation and a surge in fiscal deficits over the next year.
Among the 89 respondents, 38% are most concerned about the impact of the deficit on the dollar, while 32% believe that if Trump implements tariff measures, it will lead to weak economic growth and pressure on the dollar.
Although short-term policies may strengthen the dollar, long-term economic damage will suppress its attractiveness. About 70% of respondents believe that the dollar index will rise in the next month.
Confidence in the dollar by the end of the year is supported by U.S. Treasury yields due to the Fed's patient rate cuts, and safe-haven buying driven by uncertainty in Trump's economic policies.
