In the past week, Bitcoin has advanced like a bulldozer for a week, rising a little each day without breaking through 100,000 USD. On Monday (11.18) it opened at 90k and closed at 92k. Tuesday closed at 92k. Wednesday closed at 94.7k. Thursday closed at 96.6k. Friday closed at 98.6k. Saturday hit a high of 99.6k, closing at 98.4k. On Sunday (11.24) it retraced to the 5-day line at 97.3k, taking a brief rest, and currently pulled back to 98k.
Many people have been asking in the past two weeks if there has been a major pullback recently.
Their reasoning is that it has risen too much, and 100k is a watershed. A 'major crash' in the minds of many means a drop of ten to twenty thousand points or twenty to thirty thousand points.
My answer is: Recently, there has been no major crash!
(1) From the trend on the market surface.
Major crashes are often caused by minor pullbacks escalating step by step, coupled with sudden major negative news. Currently, we are only seeing hourly adjustments, and there are no high position empty patterns, so it is confirmed that there will be no major crash in the near term.
Just buy on dips as normal. Each time a new high is reached, move up the low point and set new profit targets. Maintain historical profit targets during sideways movement. If the pullback goes below the current support level, lower the profit target accordingly and adjust according to the market changes.
(2) In November, there were no negative timing points, so there is no major pullback.
(3) In December, apart from the small interest rate cut timing, there are basically no major pullbacks.
This year from April to October, the market has been oscillating for so long, and how long it has been horizontal may mean it can be vertical for just as long. Three consecutive monthly bullish candles or five consecutive bullish candles are very normal. The monthly MACD's upward momentum is also strengthening, so don't be fooled by the so-called major pullbacks. If signals appear, I will remind you in advance of short-term convergence, and there will be daily defenses in the short term, so there won't be any problems.
There may not be a crash, but a pullback is definitely coming. The coin price never just keeps rising or keeps falling. Although a pullback will definitely come, it doesn't mean you should wait. Will it pull back at 100,000, or 120,000, or 130,000? Waiting during a bull market is exclusive to around 80% of investors, and for those who are in cash or light positions, it can be fatal. The final outcome is just waiting in vain and missing out on a whole wave of a bull market.
Understand one logic: The explosive rise of Bitcoin only allows the media to spread and let more people know about the existence of the cryptocurrency world. The role of Bitcoin is to break the circle. The significant rise of altcoins with hundredfold increases will create a profit effect, inducing more newcomers to enter the market. Therefore, during this stage, Bitcoin's stagnation is actually waiting for altcoins to catch up.
Bitcoin cannot continuously rise from 70,000 to 100,000, and then to 150,000, while altcoins remain stagnant. Bitcoin has already started attracting newcomers from outside the circle at its current price level of 100,000.
Newcomers coming in now are unlikely to buy Bitcoin at such a high price. They will only buy small amounts of altcoins, so what is reflected in the coin price now is the rise of altcoins, especially some high-growth quality altcoins. However, the ultimate goal of pumping altcoins is to make newcomers greedy and go all in at high positions.
Of course, this is just the beginning. When the altcoin season arrives later, if you don't buy in, they will keep rising. If you don't buy in, they will keep rising until you start to doubt life, repeating the story of 'the wolf is coming' until newcomers jump in and go all in on altcoins, then stand guard at the peak, and the bull market ends.
Currently, most old investors are on the road to break even. Newcomers may not have done anything or have exited and are still waiting for a pullback, or they have increased their holdings in a bunch of junk coins. When BTC rises significantly, they rise slightly, and when BTC falls slightly, they fall significantly.
It can't go on like this; otherwise, you will really miss out on a bull market that you waited three years for. The market does not lack opportunities. At this stage, there are still coins that are more cost-effective than BTC, with more upside potential and low odds. Don't wait until all coins have risen to a new level and you are still not on board; otherwise, you will miss out and can only wait in vain.
