Estimating the probability that Cosmos (ATOM) will reach $40 in 2025 is difficult given the current state of the market. Currently, the price of ATOM fluctuates around $8. Forecasts show that the maximum price may reach $35.85 in 2025, and $54.76 by 2026, which hints at prospects but does not guarantee reaching $40 by the end of 2025.​​​​

Realistically, the probability can be estimated within 35%. The reason for such a number is the lack of confidence in the mass adoption of Cosmos technologies, but if the market goes into an aggressive bullrun, this probability may increase. On the other hand, development failures or regulatory pressures can quickly "bury" this optimism.

So keep ATOM if you are willing to take the risk. But $40? It's like planning a Friday night party with the expectation that all your friends will show up—optimistic, but likely!