The amplitude of BTC today is less than 1%, so there is not much room for operation. Excessive analysis will be worthless. On the one hand, we should be prepared for low-long orders, and on the other hand, we should start with aggressive orders and look at the market from these two perspectives.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, there is a high probability that BTC will surge again after a wide range of fluctuations around the 100,000 mark, so hold on to chips with cost advantages, which may cost more in time. For the specific route, please refer to the trend in November last year.
From the perspective of daily short-term, small stop-loss aggressive orders and low longs are something that every bull must be prepared for. I will give a few points for your reference.
The short-term support is 97274~95477, the second support is 92284~90710, and the lower part is the mid-line support range. Buy small when the price drops slightly, and buy big when the price drops sharply. The short-term pressure is 102420~104719.
Aggressive order: enter at the current price of 98724~96653, stop loss at 95477 (1H entity, sell below the rebound cost), bet above 100,000.
On the altcoin side: DOGE and PEPE have started again. Let’s see if this wave can lead the meme to a new high. PNUT closed with a positive line yesterday. ACT has not yet stopped falling significantly and needs further observation.
The old blockchains ADA, XRP, XLM and EOS have all risen a lot today, but ETH is still hesitating and standing still. The wave of increase the day before yesterday has all returned to the original position, but the daily line is gradually rising, giving retail investors hope in despair, and then torturing them back and forth until they despair, and then the bull market starts.
The primary market is now full of volumes, and there are golden dogs’ wealth myths every day, but there are more stories of losing money and going back to zero. Therefore, large funds should still be placed on the secondary passwords. Although they are all lying dormant now, the day of rise is not far away. You can take a gamble with small funds in the primary market. Those who know how to play can play, and those who don’t can just quietly guard their coins. Guarding your coins like guarding a widow will definitely pay off.
This round of interest rate cuts will start in September 2024. With Trump, the new US president who is friendly to cryptocurrencies, the balance sheet reduction may be coming to an end in Q1 next year, plus spot ETFs. Although there is no loosening of funds, it has finally moved from tightening to easing. The new four years are very worth looking forward to.
The first wave is from now to Q1 next year, and then we will see if there will be a US economic recession or other black swans. If so, it will be another 312, and then it will be a similar situation in 2020-21. I will share the details at that time.
If the US economy had not experienced a recession and a soft landing, there would have been no 312, and the music and dance would have continued.
BTC, SOL, BNB and the new public chain SUI have risen, driving the growth of the MEME track. Other tracks are not very active. As we analyzed earlier, ETH needs to exert its strength. Coincidentally, ETH is exerting its strength at the moment and seems to have started the second wave. (As of the time of posting, the market reaction is what I said before, L1 is also exploding, this is an enduring hype narrative).
Now that ETH has started its second wave of rise, given the general background, it is very likely that the entire track of the copycat will see a general rise. However, if you want to see a specific track doing well, then it is worth choosing: the new old blockchain, MEME, L2 on ETH, and AI-related projects (such as AI+MEME).
As for games, it’s not that I don’t choose them, but I may put them at the back of the list. What the crypto market is hyping about will often be reflected in specific currencies in the end. So how do we find out which track the crypto market will be hyped next? We can look at the projects launched on Binance, the U.S. macroeconomics, and reports from major U.S. media.
From 22 years to now, the most track projects launched by Binance are public chain, meme, L2, games, AI, defi (I don’t want to write about this track, what’s the matter, if you want to get rich quickly, meme and public chain are not enough to play with), rwa and depin (there are signs), as for other tracks, in fact, the same thing still applies, if you want to get rich quickly, meme, L1, games, AI, why aren’t they enough for you to seize the opportunity.
Grasping the new market narrative and new track:
(1) Binance is a bellwether of the industry, and with its liquidity, this cannot be questioned.
(2) Information about the United States. Apart from other things, the increase in DOGE and PNUT speaks for itself. So we must pay attention to it. As for SOL, don’t forget that this is a project created by the powerful American capital investment and market makers. In fact, SUI, apt, omni, alt, etc. are all these.
The timing and coin selection have been indicated. It is not difficult to get on the train, but what about getting off? Any project must be able to calculate the possible valuation based on the market background, the track it belongs to, the exchange it is listed on (Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, OK, etc.), the market maker it belongs to (the nature of the market maker), the ceiling of the same track, the narrative prospects of the track, etc.
There is no project that can keep pulling up the market. There will always be a market cleanup, even for BTC. The market is anti-human. Emotional FOMO is bad, very bad.
