Although Bitcoin is approaching 100,000, this is also a bull market for Bitcoin. A small part of the copycats are bullish, but overall the copycats have not reached the bull market. It will take some time before the copycats reach the bull market. The current market has not seen sharp rises and falls, and it is all rising. If the index exceeds 92 and is extremely greedy, we must consider the risk of a pullback. At this time, trading needs to be cautious, and the subsequent market conditions should be determined based on next week's data, such as monitoring the inflow and outflow comparison of US stock Bitcoin ETFs.
The performance window for copycat stocks is only this weekend and next week, which is a three-day window. If the market does not pull up, we can only wait for the next wave cycle. Some of the standard copycat stocks in the SOL sector have already been cleaned out in advance.
During this period, we have repeatedly reminded ourselves to take profits at highs and pay attention to risks.
The recent decline of new coins (ACT, PNUT) reminded me of the golden pit in the DeFi era. At that time, in September and October 2020, the market was hit hard, especially the DeFi projects represented by UNI, which were directly criticized. However, the first wave of the bull market was eventually launched from the DeFi sector. The trend is worth believing.
As long as there are hot spots on the chain and it brings wealth effects, large funds in the secondary market will pull benchmark projects, and once the secondary funds lead the trend, more hot money will flow into the chain to chase the next wealth effect. This relationship is a cycle of mutual achievement.
I still remember that when UNI, SUSHI, and YFI plummeted, new DeFi projects continued to emerge on the chain. The current situation is similar. No matter how the new Meme coins in the exchange fall, the chain is still in full swing.
Next, which track will the funds choose to pull out the trend first? The answer is actually very obvious. After the first wave of trends is over, other narratives will come on stage. Just like the last round of NFT, Metaverse, GameFi and other Ponzi projects, they all started to perform after DeFi was pulled out.
What everyone is concerned about now is not whether the price can stabilize at 100,000, but whether there will be a correction after such a high increase?
Judging from the latest on-chain data, Bitcoin has continued to flow out of exchanges within 24 hours. Binance has lost more than 10,000 Bitcoins from yesterday to today, and stablecoins are still flowing into exchanges steadily.
From now until next January when Trump takes office, prices will continue to rise because the expectations are there. As we said before, the United States regards bitcoin as a strategic reserve, which has led other countries to follow suit and buy it as well.
In addition, many listed companies also want to buy it. For example, giants like Microsoft have to decide within a month whether to buy the big pie.
It will not be a problem or a surprise for the big cake to stabilize at 10w+ next year!
If Bitcoin stops rising, altcoins will rise. Don’t worry about the altcoins falling. Just control your own swing profits. According to historical laws, the altcoin season will begin 7 months after each halving, and Bitcoin’s dominance will begin to collapse.
This halving is in April, so 7 months later it will be November-December. The altcoin price has risen sharply, very violently, but also quickly.
Many brothers who missed the opportunity did not make arrangements in advance and want to catch up, so they can only stay at the top of the mountain. I have reminded you before that if you want to make arrangements with short positions, it is best to wait for a pullback and take over when the price goes down.
You can find good targets and slowly add back your positions. Be sure to buy and wait patiently for a surge.
Regarding the later stage, Bitcoin will start a plan to reduce its holdings by 20% after it officially breaks through 100,000 U.S. dollars. Even if Bitcoin may reach new heights from the perspective of the bull market time cycle, it will be reduced slowly in batches. At this stage, Bitcoin is no longer cost-effective to choose to buy at the bottom.
As for the old cottage, BCH has broken through 500 US dollars, LTC is heading for 100 after crossing the sector, XRP, TRX and ADA are catching up, and ATOM has also soared briefly. If we have no ambiguity about the current bull market environment, then we should not doubt the logic that the currency assets in our hands will return to high levels and make some money appropriately.
Which coin will be the next to reach a new high?
The secondary market is very fragmented now. Most of the altcoins have no narrative and no consensus. The old stories have been told for several years but have not been finished. Now the secondary market has reached the time for "value investment". Only those coins with really good fundamentals, whether they are memes or application coins, have the opportunity to continue to follow this bull market. Sol is a good example.
From this perspective, bnb will be the next public chain to reach new highs soon.
In addition, doge, Dogecoin, with the support of this round of Musk market, we can clearly feel the huge amount of funds pouring in. I currently believe that Dogecoin is also the next coin that can reach a new high.
The start of each bull market has some common characteristics
1. In the early stage of the bull market, Bitcoin will slowly rise, standing out from the crowd, driving up Ethereum. At this time, some good mainstream coins will follow the rise, and other coins will slowly follow the rise. Very few altcoins will soar. In this round, like the meme, ai sectors and sol ecology, most altcoins will not move much.
2. Bitcoin and Ethereum fluctuated upward in the mid-term bull market, mainstream coins began to rise, and a large number of altcoins began to slowly start
3. In the later stage of the bull market, Bitcoin fluctuated and fell. Ethereum, as the leader of the altcoins, may continue to rise. Mainstream coins will rise one after another. The highlight of the second round of the bull market will soar several times, or even dozens or hundreds of times.
So, what stage are we in now? Obviously, we are in the transition between the first and second stages. The valuable coins in the hands of many people may not be able to outperform Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogfish, Frog, etc. Some have even doubled. They are very anxious and even unable to sleep at night. So they chase the ups and downs, frequently change positions, and make mistakes at every step. The final result is that although they have experienced a bull market, others have made a lot of money, but they have lost a lot of money.
What I want to tell you is that this is normal, and it is like this in every bull market. Choose your target well and hold on to it! Don’t change your car, as fortune will always change, and it will always have its time to perform!
