$DOGE
1. Current Situation Analysis:
- DOGE is in a strong upward trend, breaking out of the accumulation zone 0.37-0.40
- RSI is at 65-70, approaching the overbought zone
- MACD gives a positive signal with the MACD line crossing above the signal line
- Trading volume surged in the most recent session
2. Money Flow Analysis:
- Net money flow is -12.29M DOGE in the last 24 hours
- Long/Short Ratio:
+ Long accounts for 45.93% (25.93% + 20.40%)
+ Short accounts for 26.73% (19.63% + 7.10%)
- The Long ratio is significantly higher than Short, posing a risk of short-term squeeze
3. Trading Scenarios:
Scenario 1 - Correction (probability 60%):
- DOGE may correct back to test the zone 0.37-0.40
- Reasons:
+ RSI near the overbought zone
+ Net money outflow
+ High Long ratio, easy to trigger profit-taking
- Correction target: 0.37-0.38
- Strong support: 0.35
Scenario 2 - Continue to Rise (probability 40%):
- DOGE may test the zone 0.48-0.50
- Drivers:
+ Positive MACD
+ Strong momentum
+ Large trading volume
4. Trading Proposal:
Short at the current price range:
- Entry: 0.44-0.45
- Take profit 1: 0.40 (40% size)
- Take profit 2: 0.37 (60% size)
- Stop loss: 0.48
- R/R ratio = 2:1
Risk Management:
- Only use 2-3% of capital for this position
- Split the order into 2-3 smaller orders
- Trailing stop when the price corrects
- Set OCO orders to protect profits
5. Key Points to Note:
- Monitor BTC fluctuations as it has correlation
- Pay attention to news about Elon Musk/Twitter that may affect
- Sudden volume spikes may signal a reversal
- Overbought RSI may trigger a correction
You should closely monitor developments in the next 4-6 hours to:
- Confirm the correction trend
- Adjust stop loss and take profit
- Cut losses timely if the trend reverses