Altseason is a short-term phenomenon where altcoins outperform Bitcoin and yield high returns, with key indicators for the 2025 prediction being BTC.D, ETH/BTC, USDT.D, and OTHERS/BTC.
Author: Cryptowrit3r
Translation: Plain Language Blockchain
One of the most discussed topics in the cryptocurrency space has always been 'Altseason'. This is because this brief period usually brings about crazy returns. Altseason is considered a major source of attraction for crypto tourists, as it helps bring newcomers into the crypto space. Today, we will learn about the top four indicators predicting the altseason of 2025.
1. What is altseason in cryptocurrency?
Altseason is a phenomenon in the crypto space known for generating insane profits. This phenomenon occurs across all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, known as altcoins. So think about your Solana, your BNB, your SUI, and so on. When altseason arrives, all these tokens start to outperform Bitcoin on various indicators, and their prices skyrocket. Some tokens double in price within a few hours, and some see a 1000% increase in less than a week.
But all good things must come to an end. This is why altseason is typically followed closely by a severe sell-off, marking the peak of the bull market cycle. We will see interruptions in the upward trend, with prices plummeting due to massive whale sell-off pressure. When altseason occurs during a bear market, it is often referred to as a relief rally, and it tends to last for a shorter duration. The sell-off begins when tokens hit their high time frame (HTF) resistance levels. In high time frames, each candle represents a day, a week, or a month. This is commonly referred to as a trap bull, a favorite term of Capo in the crypto space.
Recently, there have been significant changes in the cryptocurrency market. This is because there are now millions of crypto projects operating, meaning when funds flow into the market, there are many projects to choose from. This could lead to diluted returns during the upcoming altseason in 2025, leaving many token holders disappointed. The flow of funds is typically illustrated as shown below.
Let's discuss the top indicators, the four key indicators for the altseason of 2025. We believe there are four indicators that will play a crucial role in the altseason of 2025:
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
ETH/BTC
USDT Dominance
Other pairs/BTC
Let's break down each indicator one by one.
2. Why is BTC.D important?
BTC.D stands for Bitcoin Dominance (market share). This indicator is crucial for predicting our position in the market cycle. This is because it measures the share of Bitcoin in the entire crypto market. If BTC.D is 61%, then Bitcoin controls 61% of the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, 61% of the liquidity is dedicated to Bitcoin. Naturally, this means it is Bitcoin's season, and we should expect altcoins to weaken relative to Bitcoin. When BTC.D starts to decline, this is a good sign for altcoins. This is when things get interesting, as liquidity flows more towards other crypto assets like Ethereum, blue chips, and altcoins.
Notice that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has reached an important resistance level on the weekly chart. This means we can expect it to peak between 62-63%. If it does not peak, it will continue to rise until it approaches 70% before potentially peaking again. A drop below 58% on the daily chart, followed by another test of 60% that fails to hold above 60%, may indicate that this 'big brother' (chad) has peaked.
The blue circles on the chart indicate the altseason of 2021, during which many famous crypto millionaires were born.
2. ETH/BTC Prophet
If you ask any crypto expert, they will tell you that ETH/BTC is one of the most important charts to watch closely. When ETH declines relative to BTC, altcoins tend to weaken and undergo distribution (a fancy term for massive sell-offs). However, when ETH gains momentum against BTC, you can expect the arrival of the altseason in 2025.
It is well-known that ETH is the largest ecosystem in the crypto space, with the most TVL (Total Value Locked). TVL is as important to blockchain as deposits are to banks. This is why when it rises, everything rises rapidly, and we see green candles everywhere. Looking at the high time frame charts, you will find that ETH/BTC has been in a prolonged decline. It is now facing a strong support level of about 0.031, which could begin to reverse upwards. This means it could trigger altseason. ETH/BTC could also reverse if it fails to drop below 0.033 and closes above 0.04.
Pro tip: When plotting these types of indicators, make sure to use HTF candlestick charts, such as monthly and weekly, or at least daily.
3. USDT.D and liquidity flow
USDT.D is the market share of the dollar stablecoin USDT in the crypto market. Tether issues USDT, and we know it is the largest stablecoin in the crypto space. This means that whenever there is buying pressure, people will buy by exchanging USDT for various crypto assets.
Generally, when USDT.D declines, people sell USDT to buy cryptocurrencies, whether Bitcoin or altcoins. During tough times, people flock to Bitcoin but will buy during Bitcoin season (remember BTC.D) because Bitcoin's price will rise. But if you see USDT.D declining while altcoin prices are rising, liquidity is flowing more towards altcoins instead of Bitcoin.
There is also a chart called OTHERS that you can find on Tradingview. This chart represents all altcoins except blue chips and the top ten projects. If this chart rises while USDT.D declines, it simply means it is the altseason of 2025.
A decline in USDT.D may also indicate that investors are cashing out profits or panicking. If you see TOTAL1, which is the total market cap of the crypto market, also declining while this indicator falls, it means something serious is happening.
You want to see this indicator drop below 4% and close below it weekly to confirm that liquidity is moving towards crypto assets. If this aligns with a decline in BTC.D, then it’s time to take action!
4. OTHERS/BTC Secret Weapon
We talked about OTHERS, which are all altcoins excluding blue chips. A better chart is to look at the performance of these altcoins (OTHERS) relative to Bitcoin. To get this chart on Tradingview, just open the search bar, type OTHERS/BTC, as shown in the image. Then look for the marked indicator and click it.
You will be able to plot the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin. Simply put, whenever these altcoins gain momentum relative to Bitcoin, it is altseason. Whenever Bitcoin gains momentum, it is Bitcoin season. The best time to buy altcoins is when they form long-term lows relative to Bitcoin, just like they are doing now.
On the contrary, the best time to sell altcoins is when they peak, which was the case in early 2022.
5. Summary
Remember, no one can predict the top or bottom of the market. The best we can do is make rational guesses. These indicators help us make those guesses, but we can never arrive at the long-term low that everyone is waiting for. The cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile and unpredictable. Never forget that. This is educational content and should not be considered financial advice.
Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/11/5550.html
Source: https://medium.com/coinmonks/4-indicators-to-watch-for-the-upcoming-altseason-in-2025-553716327662
