Trading volumes will be very large next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated this week, causing gold prices to recover all losses since Trump's victory.
1. According to the latest survey, Wall Street's professional analysts' strong bearish sentiment has completely disappeared. Among the 18 gold analysts surveyed, 16 are bullish (accounting for 89%), 2 are neutral (accounting for 11%), and no one is bearish.
Bullish investors believe that geopolitical factors will continue to support gold prices, and the chaotic situation will not understand an end. Neutral analysts worry that the rise in gold prices is sudden, and thus may trigger a sell-off at any time. Next week coincides with the end of the month, increasing this possibility further.
Today we initiated a survey on individual investors, please participate:
Note: Last week's survey showed that 64% of investors were bearish, 26% bullish, and 10% neutral.
2. A major challenge for gold is that the dollar index also shows a breakthrough rise, reaching a two-year high. One of them needs to decline in the latter half of next week.
3. After this week's close, Trump nominated macro hedge fund Key Square Group founder Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary. In the first two trading days of next week, the volatility of the dollar index may further intensify. Bessent can be said to be the Treasury Secretary who understands the financial market the best; every word and action of his will impact the dollar and even the global market trends.
Next week, the Fed's statements will also need close attention, to see the subtle changes in officials' statements after the Treasury Secretary candidate is preliminarily determined.
Bessent once suggested Trump announce who he intends to choose to succeed Powell as soon as possible, so that the 'shadow' chairman can attempt to weaken Powell's influence, making the latter a lame duck. From this perspective, it may be difficult for Bessent to have a good relationship with Powell.
4. There is almost no economic data this week, resulting in a one-sided market trend. Next week will be a data-heavy week, with not only inflation indicators favored by the Fed being released, but also the minutes of the Fed's November meeting being made public.
Now the market sees a 'fifty-fifty' chance for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, leaving the suspense for next week.
Today, we released (Global Market Strategy: Trump, a Call to Action), traders are wildly betting that Trump's return will bring huge shocks, and the A-shares have already felt the chill. How far will A-shares drop? Will the renminbi depreciate significantly? Will gold and U.S. stocks plummet? Will Bitcoin break 100,000 next week? Everything that follows may completely overturn your perceptions.
Report Highlights:
Exclusive interpretation: (What will happen next Monday after the announcement of the U.S. Treasury Secretary candidate?), what does it mean for the dollar? The market will reassess Trump's economic agenda. Has the dollar peaked? We delve into its short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends, revealing the underlying market logic.
Trump's 'Shock Plan' exposed on the first day in office — from the first day layout to the potential escalation of a second round of trade war, we have deduced three potential conflict timelines. These points will become 'buy' and 'sell' windows that investors cannot miss.
The Fed's interest rate cut plans have changed — releasing an exclusive interpretation of (Fed Policy Outlook): The future number of interest rate cuts and the stopping time, key nodes that many did not expect, are hidden in the report.
Wall Street has named 10 Chinese stocks to watch this week, with one having a potential upside of 103%.
