The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stated: SEC Chief Gary Gensler will leave on January 20. Fox News reported that former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chief Chris Giancarlo is expected to take over as SEC chief. Chris Giancarlo is one of the founders of the Digital Dollar and has emphasized the importance of these emerging technologies and financial instruments for the future. The Nasdaq index rose by 0.3%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.7%, and the Dow Jones index rose by 1.4%.
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The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced: SEC Chief Gary Gensler will leave on January 20. Fox News reported that former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chief Chris Giancarlo is expected to take over as SEC chief. Chris Giancarlo is one of the founders of the Digital Dollar and has deep insights into the development of Web3 and digital currencies, having participated in various discussions regarding cryptocurrencies, Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), and stablecoins, emphasizing the importance of these emerging technologies and financial instruments for the future. Media reports suggest that the Trump team is discussing with the digital asset industry the establishment of a new position in the White House specifically responsible for cryptocurrency policy, with the Trump team reviewing candidates for this role. Discussions regarding this position include leading a small team and acting as a liaison between Congress, the White House, and various agencies with jurisdiction over cryptocurrencies, including the SEC and the CFTC. FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett stated that negotiations between SEC staff and issuers wishing to launch SOL spot ETFs 'have made progress', with the SEC currently processing the S-1 application for the SOL spot ETF. It is highly likely that in the coming days, exchange representatives will submit some 19b-4 documents, which is the next step in the ETF approval process. ETF issuers indicated that the Solana ETF may be approved sometime in 2025.
On November 21, MicroStrategy (MSTR) reached a trading volume of $14 billion within 40 minutes of the US stock market opening, accounting for 40% of yesterday's total trading volume. Currently, MSTR's stock price is $482.93, with an increase of 1.92%. The well-known short-seller Citron has shorted MicroStrategy. Citron stated that as BTC investments are easier than ever, MicroStrategy's trading volume has completely detached from BTC's fundamentals. Although still optimistic about BTC, they have hedged by opening short positions in MicroStrategy. The New York Times reported that the Trump Media Technology Group applied for a service called TruthFi on Monday, describing it as a platform for crypto payments, financial custody services, and digital asset trading. According to a report from brokerage Tickmill Group's analysts, the rise in BTC is driven by expectations that the incoming Trump will have a favorable attitude towards cryptocurrencies, and the market will closely monitor any news regarding Trump's upcoming Treasury Secretary nomination. Swan Bitcoin analyst Sam Callahan stated that BTC prices continue to be driven by a range of factors, including improved liquidity conditions, increased institutional adoption, and a shift in the US regulatory environment from headwinds to tailwinds. Trump's term also means a larger budget deficit, potential for more inflation, and changes in the international role of the dollar, all of which will have a positive impact on BTC prices. Investors continue to expect that Trump's election will usher in a so-called golden age for cryptocurrencies, which will include more supportive regulations for the industry and a potential national strategic BTC reserve for the US.
On November 20, the net inflow of BTC spot ETF in the US reached $773.4 million; the net outflow of ETH spot ETF was $30.3 million. On November 21, as BTC continued its record rise, the total assets of US spot ETFs directly investing in BTC surpassed $100 billion, with BTC rising to $98,000. The Trump team is discussing whether to establish a White House position specifically responsible for cryptocurrency policy for the first time, while the industry hopes to directly engage with Trump through this position. MicroStrategy plans to accelerate its token purchases, and US BTC ETF options are making their debut, boosting sentiment in the US digital asset market. J.D. Seraphine, CEO of Raiinmaker, stated that large financial institutions such as BlackRock have already included BTC on their balance sheets, which is completely different from any previous cycle of this asset. The approval and adoption of BTC ETFs make it easier for traditional investors in the US to participate in investments, and this institutional recognition is seen as a validation of BTC's long-term potential. On Thursday, the Nasdaq index rose by 0.3%, the S&P 500 index by 0.7%, and the Dow Jones index by 1.4%. Nvidia's third-quarter earnings report showed profits nearly doubled. The report indicated that the third-quarter revenue was $35.1 billion, a 17% quarter-over-quarter growth, surpassing analysts' survey forecasts, with profits reaching $19.3 billion, also exceeding Wall Street's expectations. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue to be about $37.5 billion, also above expectations. Bernstein has raised Nvidia's target stock price from $155 to $175.
Federal Reserve's Williams stated that this year's US economic growth has exceeded expectations, inflation has cooled, and the labor market has also slowed down, with no signs of recession observed. By the end of next year, interest rates will be lower than they are now, depending on the data and progress made. Federal Reserve Governor Cook indicated that over time, the Fed is likely to lower interest rates to a more neutral stance due to inflation progress and a robust labor market, with the direction of interest rates being downward. Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: The labor market is transitioning towards stable full employment, and the neutral interest rate is far below the current rate level. A Reuters survey showed that of 106 analysts, 94 believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The survey median shows that the Fed will lower the interest rate to 3.50%-3.75% (currently 4.5%-4.75%) by the end of 2025. Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon expects that the capital markets will be more active in 2025, with policies implemented after Trump took office likely to further improve the capital markets. With the Fed possibly cutting interest rates further, the market could also benefit from improved investor sentiment. Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau expressed that he believes the data will meet expectations and still anticipates the Fed will cut rates in December, expecting to see deregulation and looser fiscal policies. The market believes that Trump's support for cryptocurrencies signals a prosperous market, and the US will shift towards a friendly regulatory approach for the crypto market. On Thursday, BTC reached $98,000, just a step away from $100,000, with 12 BTC ETFs including BlackRock and Fidelity reaching a milestone of absorbing $10 billion BTC within 10 months after debuting in January.
Returning to altcoins, they slightly rose in the evening, with BTC up 4%, ETH up 8%, and SOI up 10%. Altcoins are hard to look at, is the old man anxious? If the current scenario were November 2025, there would indeed be unrest, but currently, it's November 2024, and Bitcoin is still in a skyrocketing phase, with no anxiety. Just like in 2020, the first half is about watching Bitcoin's performance and waiting for profit-taking. (Looking back at history, when capital accumulates in Bitcoin, it may mean that Bitcoin is still far from its historical peak in this cycle. When Bitcoin approaches the psychological peak of capital, expected returns weaken, and funds may flow into other coins). Will capital overflow? One important attribute of capital is greed, for example, the well-known institution Citron could not resist 'daring' to short MicroStrategy today, while still 'optimistic about BTC'. After applying for BTC and ETH spot ETFs, the capital market has now applied to the US Securities and Exchange Commission for the listing of SOL, and we may see other ETFs packaged and listed next year, showcasing the profit-seeking nature of capital. The period for the Fed to cut rates is still long, having just cut rates twice (two cuts of 75 basis points, with a total increase of 525 basis points over the past two years), and the bull market is expected to last a long time.
